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Bullish Rebound Nears Its Upper Limit, Focus Shifts to BoJ’s December Policy
Summary:
GBPJPY attracted buying for a second consecutive day, but with a BoJ rate hike in December now almost certain, bullish sentiment lacks conviction.
Trading
206.383
ENTRY
203.120
TGT
208.500
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
203.120
TGT
CLOSING
206.383
ENTRY
208.500
SL
Fundamentals
GBPJPY strengthened for a second straight session on Thursday and retreated back below 207.00 during the European session. Spot prices are approaching the recent top, prompting cautious bullish positioning.
The recent rise in the pound was supported by the easing of UK budget uncertainty and a broadly weaker dollar. This in turn has been viewed as a positive factor for GBPJPY. However, slowing inflation and cooling labor market conditions have led markets to widely expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates later this month, limiting aggressive GBP long bets.
In Japan, the yen continues to maintain relative strength, mainly supported by the BoJ’s hawkish stance, and this has capped further upside in GBPJPY. Three Japanese government sources reported that the BoJ is highly likely to raise rates in December, and the government is expected to tolerate the decision.
Sources indicated the BoJ appears ready to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, a signal echoed by Governor Kazuo Ueda in his speech on Monday. This would be the first hike since January.
One source stated: “If the BoJ wants to raise rates this month, they can go ahead. That is the government’s stance.” He added that a December hike is virtually certain.
Ueda said Monday that the BoJ would consider the “pros and cons” of a rate hike this month, suggesting a high likelihood of action at the December 18–19 meeting. His remarks drove market pricing to roughly an 80% probability of a December hike, although some participants are watching how dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration might react. Market focus may shift toward how far the BoJ signals rates could ultimately rise, a topic on which Ueda remains deliberately vague.
Technical Analysis
GBPJPY resumed its upward intraday trajectory, once again breaking above the 207.00 level. The uptrend from 184.35 continues and is poised to retest the 208.09 high. A firm break above this resistance would confirm the resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
However, with a December BoJ rate hike almost certain, bullish conviction is limited. A break below the 205.17 support would turn the outlook bearish, potentially triggering a deeper correction toward the 55-day moving average (currently at 203.12).
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 206.85
Target Price: 203.12
Stop Loss: 208.50
Valid Until: December 21, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 206.26 / 205.46 / 205.21
Resistance Levels: 207.22 / 207.35 / 207.82
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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