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For Bulls to Push Higher, Continuous Corrections Within the Uptrend Are Essential
Summary:
Gold continues to fluctuate below the 4,200 level. Although it lacks breakout momentum, it remains firmly above weekly lows. The dollar has rebounded slightly after hitting a short-term low, creating short-term pressure on gold prices.
Trading
4192.11
ENTRY
4350.00
TGT
4152.00
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
4152.00
SL
CLOSING
4192.11
ENTRY
4350.00
TGT
Fundamentals
During the European session on Thursday, gold prices remained below the 4,200 mark, staying defensive but without a clear bearish trend, and holding above the weekly low. The US dollar attempted a mild rebound after touching its lowest level since late October on Wednesday, which acted as a short-term headwind for gold. The World Gold Council maintained its view that gold may trade within a range next year, while strong upside potential cannot be ruled out.
The World Gold Council noted that gold delivered a remarkable performance in 2025, posting more than 50 new all-time highs and returning over 60%. This performance was supported by rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, a weaker US dollar, and strong price momentum. Both investors and central banks increased their allocations to gold, seeking diversification and stability.
Looking ahead to 2026, geo-economic uncertainty will shape gold’s outlook. Gold prices generally reflect consensus macro expectations; if current conditions persist, gold may continue to trade within a range.
However, as this year's developments show, 2026 could again deliver surprises. If economic growth slows and interest rates fall further, gold could rise moderately. In a deeper global downturn—characterized by elevated risks—gold may perform strongly. Conversely, if policies implemented by the Trump administration prove successful, economic growth could accelerate, geopolitical risks could decline, interest rates could rise, and the dollar could strengthen, thereby pressuring gold prices lower.
Other factors—such as central bank demand and gold recycling trends—may also influence the market. Most importantly, in a persistently volatile environment, gold’s role as a source of diversification and stability remains critical.
Technical Analysis
Gold has repeatedly failed to break through the 4,245–4,250 zone, indicating that the previous trendline break remains influential, favoring the bears. However, signs of stabilization on the hourly chart suggest that downward momentum may be finding support.
Still, for bulls to push higher, continuous corrections within the uptrend are essential. First, gold must break above yesterday’s high at 4,242, and any pullback must remain above the intraday low at 4,174; otherwise, the corrective phase will be extended again. As a result, renewed volatility may emerge as bulls and bears compete for control.
On the positive side, the 4,245–4,250 area may continue to act as strong resistance toward 4,277–4,278. A break above this region could open a move toward the 4,300 psychological level. Sustained gains above that level would be viewed as a key bullish signal and pave the way for further upside in the near term.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4186
Target Price: 4350
Stop Loss: 4152
Valid Until: December 20, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 4188 / 4174 / 4164
Resistance Levels: 4208 / 4217 / 4241
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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