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CAD/CHF firms as oil steadies near $60 and SNB holds at 0%
Summary:
CAD/CHF is underpinned by a steadier crude backdrop around $60, a Bank of Canada that trimmed rates to 2.25% on 29/10 but signaled a measured path forward...
Trading
0.57200
ENTRY
0.58650
TGT
0.56500
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
0.56500
SL
CLOSING
0.57200
ENTRY
0.58650
TGT
Overview
The policy mix modestly favors CAD over CHF after the BoC’s 25 bp cut to 2.25% lowered front-end carry only marginally while emphasizing data dependence, whereas the SNB has been explicit that current settings are “in a good position” with inflation within target, which lowers the odds of CHF-supportive surprises. With WTI printing near the $60 handle in recent sessions and Brent subdued, Canada’s terms-of-trade impulse is stabilizing rather than deteriorating.
On the broader macro tape, the dollar’s range near the DXY 100 pivot reflects last week’s Fed move being digested rather than an aggressive new trend, and that neutrality limits cross-asset shocks that would otherwise lift CHF. In this environment, CAD/CHF tends to respect supports on shallow pullbacks, as energy steadiness and a non-activist SNB leave room for CAD to express modest relative strength.
Market sentiment
Risk appetite is orderly, not euphoric, with VIX hovering in the high-teens to ~19, a regime that historically favors mean-reversion and technical follow-through rather than flight-to-quality. Positioning has shifted toward fading CHF strength on rallies because the SNB’s minutes and subsequent commentary signaled comfort with a 0% policy rate and inflation back inside the band, while CAD has found incremental support from oil stabilizing and a BoC narrative that does not scream “accelerating cuts.”
If DXY remains beneath the low-100s and crude holds its shelf, discretionary accounts are inclined to buy CAD/CHF dips rather than chase upside breakouts, keeping a constructive tone into European hours.
Technical analysis
The intraday structure favors buy-the-dip execution. Price has been spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below, and each tag of the 20-period mean has drawn responsive bids, a pattern that typically precedes renewed checks of the upper band if momentum holds. Ichimoku shows price rotating on or just above the Kumo, with Tenkan tracking at or slightly over Kijun; repeated defenses of the cloud top define a tight buy zone that aligns with the Bollinger mid-line.
Stochastic has been cycling higher from mid-range, and a clean %K re-cross above %D from roughly the 40–50 band on a shallow pullback is the tactical trigger that often precedes an upper-band extension. The path of least resistance remains higher while holds above the cloud persist; a decisive loss of the Kumo would only shift the bias to neutral provided crude does not break the $58 area. (Macro anchors: BoC at 2.25%, SNB steady at 0%, DXY near ~99.8.).
Trade Recommendations
Entry: 0.572
TP: 0.5865
SL: 0.5750
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