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USD/AUD weakens as RBA holds and DXY stalls near 100; M15 favors selling rallies
Summary:
The RBA’s November hold at 3.60% with a firmer inflation tone contrasted with a post-FOMC dollar that is struggling to build momentum around the DXY 100 pivot...
Trading
0.64852
ENTRY
0.66000
TGT
0.64600
SL
0.64792 -0.00260 -0.40%
0
Point
Flat
0.64600
SL
CLOSING
0.64852
ENTRY
0.66000
TGT
Overview
Policy signaling favors AUD resilience versus USD on the margin. The RBA left the cash rate at 3.60% on 4 November and toughened its language around inflation risks, a stance that discourages markets from pricing rapid follow-up cuts and helps the currency hold ground into the ABS’s first “complete” monthly CPI release on 26 November. On the U.S. side, the Fed’s 25 bp cut to 3.75–4.00% came with guidance that December is “not a foregone conclusion,” which initially steadied the dollar but has not produced a decisive DXY break beyond the round-number pivot. As of late Wednesday, AUD/USD was marked around 0.651 on major wires while DXY chopped just under 100, leaving USD/AUD heavy unless U.S. yields or data surprises flip the narrative.
Market sentiment
Positioning has rotated toward fading USD strength into 100.0–100.3 on the DXY while respecting that risk appetite is orderly rather than euphoric. The RBA’s firmer rhetoric reduces the probability of AUD-negative policy surprises in the very near term, whereas the Fed’s cut without a clear path to further easing keeps the dollar in a “range with topside hesitation” regime. In this backdrop, discretionary accounts prefer expressions that benefit from AUD dip-buying and USD rallies stalling at resistance, which directly maps to a sell-the-rally bias in USD/AUD so long as the index fails to clear and hold above the low-100s.
Technical analysis
The inverse pair dynamics are key. On AUD/USD M15, price is rotating above the Bollinger mid-line after rejecting the lower band, a continuation setup that typically precedes another upper-band check if the 20-period mean holds on dips. Ichimoku shows price oscillating on or just above the cloud with Tenkan at or marginally above Kijun; repeated defenses of the Kumo top define a tight intraday buy zone for AUD (bearish USD/AUD). Stochastic (5/3/3) is cycling up from mid-range; a clean %K > %D re-cross from roughly the 40–50 area on a shallow dip often leads to an upper-band extension.
Translating back to USD/AUD, rallies toward the M15 mid-band and cloud base should meet supply, with acceptance back below the mid-line opening a path toward this week’s prior micro-lows if DXY remains capped.
Trade Recommendations
Entry: 0.648
TP: 0.6600
SL: 0.646
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