USDX
98.980

0.20%

XAUUSD
4209.51

0.18%

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59.525

1.24%

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1.16440

0.22%

GBPUSD
1.33299

0.15%

USDJPY
155.090

0.08%

USNDAQ100
25628.30

0.04%

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      Can Gold Surpass 4380 with Triangle Consolidation Pattern Breakthrough?

      Commodity
      Summary:

      Gold continues to strengthen, supported by geopolitical risks and rising expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. Technical analysis shows a pronounced bullish trend.

      Buy XAUUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      4212.19

      ENTRY

      4360.00

      TGT

      4190.00

      SL

      4209.51 +7.43 +0.18%

      2219

      Points

      Loss

      4190.00

      SL

      4189.37

      CLOSING

      4212.19

      ENTRY

      4360.00

      TGT

      Fundamentals

      Gold prices have recently strengthened amid intertwined geopolitical risks and interest rate expectations, briefly surging to 4264.66 before retreating into a volatile range. A series of developments escalating tensions between China and Japan, including friction over the Diaoyu and Senkaku Islands and verbal confrontations at international forums, have elevated “regional geopolitical risks” on the trading agenda. As uncertainty intensifies, investors naturally rebuild their safe-haven positions, benefiting gold as a traditional safe-haven asset.
      From a transmission logic perspective, Sino-Japanese tensions impact gold prices through three pathways: First, direct safe-haven premium, when regional conflict risks escalate, some multinational capital shifts positions from risk assets to gold and government bonds, driving up gold prices in the short term; Second, macroeconomic and trade shocks, if tensions disrupt trade or fuel concerns over global supply chains and growth, market expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts may accelerate or intensify (risk withdrawal → central bank easing expectations), depressing real interest rates and supporting gold prices; Third, currency and capital flows, if the yen fluctuates due to war premiums and capital outflows, interactions between regional currencies and the dollar will indirectly influence cross-currency demand for gold. The combined effect of these three pathways significantly heightens gold's sensitivity during the current news.

      Technical Analysis

      Can Gold Surpass 4380 with Triangle Consolidation Pattern Breakthrough?_1
      On the 4-hour chart, gold recently broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern and continued its upward momentum. After breaking through the resistance level of 4245 to reach 4264.66, it began to pull back. Currently, gold has tested the 20-day moving average support with two consecutive downward-trending 4-hour candlesticks, both closing with lower shadows. This indicates an inability to break below effectively, signaling a significant strengthening of bullish momentum in the market. Concurrently, multiple moving averages within the system exhibit a bullish alignment pattern, suggesting strong continuity in gold's upward trend and further enhancing the likelihood of continued gains in the near term.
      On the upside, the primary resistance level for gold is at 4264.66. If this level is broken, further upward space will open, potentially testing 4300.00 or even the previous historical high of 4381.44.
      On the downside, if gold breaks below the key support at 4200.00 with increased volume, it could pull back toward 4140.00.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Buy
      Entry price: 4215.00
      Target price: 4360.00
      Stop loss: 4190.00
      Validity until: 2025-12-16 23:00:00
      Support: 4200.00, 4173.47
      Resistance: 4264.66, 4300.0
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Alan

      Analysts

      A senior trader with rich trading experience, proficient in naked K trading, and has accumulated rich practical experience in the fields of stock market, foreign exchange and commodities. With deep market insight and excellent trading skills, he can seize opportunities in complex market environment and provide investors with accurate and effective trading strategies. With his superb analytical ability and rich market experience, he is committed to pursuing excellent performance in the global financial market.

      Rank

      7

      Articless

      391

      Win Rate

      49.78%

      P/L Ratio

      1.22

      Focus on

      XAUUSD, WTI, EURUSD

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