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Canada's Economy Contracts in Q2, Casting Recession Shadow
Summary:
Canada's economy contracted in Q2, with exports severely impacted by U.S. tariffs. The USDCAD appreciated for the second consecutive trading day, trading around 1.3800 during Tuesday's European session. Technical analysis of the 1D chart indicates a bearish outlook for this asset.
Trading
1.37879
ENTRY
1.34690
TGT
1.39300
SL
1.38306 +0.00396 +0.29%
0
Point
Flat
1.34690
TGT
CLOSING
1.37879
ENTRY
1.39300
SL
Fundamentals
The USDCAD traded near 1.3800 on Wednesday, rising approximately 0.53% for the day, reaching a four-day high of 1.3814 intraday. Canada's economy contracted for the first time in nearly two years, with a significant decline in exports and business investment due to the impact of the trade war with the U.S., leading to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday indicated that Q2 GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.6%, marking the largest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic and the first contraction in nearly two years. While the figures aligned broadly with the Bank of Canada's forecasts, they underperformed economists' expectations of a 0.7% decline.
Exacerbated by U.S. tariffs impacting exports, Canada's exports declined by 27% year-over-year, completely reversing the temporary growth in trade activity seen in Q1—when exporters attempted to accelerate shipments ahead of the full implementation of Trump's tariff measures. Imports decreased by 5.1%. After a modest 1.1% growth in business investment in Q1, the sector contracted by 10.1% in the current quarter, highlighting the increasingly pessimistic outlook among Canadian firms amid ongoing U.S. tariff policies and policy uncertainties.
Technical Analysis
The intraday trend of the USDCAD remains neutral. On the upside, a sustained break above the 1.3813 resistance level would maintain the short-term bullish momentum, as the rebound from 1.3538 is ongoing. The intraday outlook is expected to turn bullish again, with a potential retest of 1.3923.
On the downside, a decisive break below 1.3720 would indicate that the corrective pattern initiated from 1.3538 has completed at 1.3923. The intraday trend would then shift to bearish, with an initial test of the 1.3574 support level.
Technical analysis of the 1D chart shows the asset consolidating within a rectangular pattern, suggesting a sideways phase. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly below the 50 level, indicating a bearish bias in the near term.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.3840
Target Price: 1.3469
Stop Loss: 1.3930
Valid Until: September 18, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 1.3763, 1.3728, 1.3707
Resistance: 1.3816, 1.3857, 1.3879
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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