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Ryozo Himino: Tariff Impact May Exceed Expectations, and Inflation Remains above the Target
Summary:
The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryozo Himino, issued a warning in his speech today that the potential impact of tariffs may exceed expectations and warrants close attention.
PENDING
149.600
ENTRY
144.380
TGT
151.580
SL
-- -- --
--
Point
PENDING
144.380
TGT
CLOSING
149.600
ENTRY
151.580
SL
Fundamentals
On Monday during European morning trading, the USDJPY experienced a slight rebound supported below the 147.00 level, after four weeks of range-bound trading. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino of the Bank of Japan issued a warning today that U.S. trade policies could exert pressure on the Japanese economy, with overseas economic slowdown and corporate profit declines potentially impacting domestic growth. Ryozo Himino indicated that while an accommodative monetary environment should mitigate shocks, the baseline scenario remains that Japan's economic growth will "decelerate," with downward risks from tariffs warranting increased attention.
Looking ahead, Ryozo Himino stated that as global economies return to more stable expansion trajectories, Japan's economic growth is expected to eventually recover. However, in the short term, tariff impacts remain a key source of uncertainty, with the risk of "greater-than-expected" effects currently perceived as more urgent than the likelihood of moderate outcomes.
Regarding inflation, Ryozo Himino noted that overall price levels remain above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, with a "considerable margin," partly due to rice price surges and their spillover effects on other commodities. However, he emphasized that as food-related pressures subside, overall inflation is expected to "moderately decline" in a timely manner. Meanwhile, core inflation remains below the target, but supported by wage-price feedback mechanisms, it is steadily rising despite potential temporary stagnation.
In summary, Ryozo Himino indicated that the Bank of Japan's baseline scenario projects a decline in headline inflation, with core prices gradually increasing toward 2%. If this trajectory persists, a gradual pace of monetary tightening, with adjustments based on economic activity and stable price growth, would be appropriate.
Technical Analysis
The USDJPY experienced a significant rebound today but remains within the 146.20 to 148.76 range. Intraday, the trend remains neutral. On the upside, a sustained break above 148.78 would indicate that the correction from the 150.90 peak has been completed. The intraday momentum could then shift back to an upward trajectory, retesting the 150.90 resistance. However, we believe the upward move lacks sufficient strength, and after a minor test of the 150.00 range, the market may weaken again.
On the downside, a confirmed break below 146.20 would reinitiate the decline from 150.90. More importantly, this would suggest that the rebound from 139.87 has been fully corrected. A further decline to the support level at 142.66 would confirm this trend.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 149.60
Target Price: 144.38
Stop Loss: 151.58
Valid Until: September 17, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 148.19, 147.41, 146.60
Resistance: 149.91, 150.90, 151.32
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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