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Correction to Extend After Volatile Washout; $5,400 Bull Target Intact
Summary:
Gold has eased short-term selling pressure following a phased market washout. While the correction remains in place, the medium-to-long-term bullish structure is unimpaired, with $5,400 still the strategic target. The market still needs time to complete this mid-term consolidation.
Trading
4998.68
ENTRY
5405.00
TGT
4785.00
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
4785.00
SL
CLOSING
4998.68
ENTRY
5405.00
TGT
Fundamentals
Gold prices have not fully stabilized after two weeks of sharp volatility. During Thursday’s New York session, gold dropped nearly $200 from $5,075 on intraday sentiment-driven selling. Despite a quick rebound, prices hold below $5,000, confirming the first round of concentrated profit-taking has been largely digested.
At the same time, bearish momentum has weakened and near-term selling pressure has abated, creating room for a technical rebound.
Market attention shifts to the upcoming U.S. CPI data, as investors assess the Fed’s policy path. Strong non-farm payrolls have reduced odds of a March Fed move, with markets expecting a pause at least until June. Barring a significant inflation surprise, the market may return to broad risk-on sentiment post-release.
In addition, inflation expectation shifts will directly drive the U.S. dollar. A weaker dollar would support non-yielding gold and cushion downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
The drop from $5,598 to $4,403 marks the initial stage of a broader mid-term correction, which appears complete. Price action from $4,403 signals the second, more complex and time-consuming phase of the correction, rather than a simple linear rebound.
The short-term outlook is constructive. The end of the first profit-taking wave raises upside potential. As long as pullbacks remain contained, momentum favors further gains before strong selling resumes.
Against this backdrop, $4,654 is a key tactical support level. Any short-term decline should hold above this level.
A decisive break above $5,085 would target the 100% retracement level at $5,342 (from $4,654 to $5,091), the natural rebound objective and near-term traders’ upper expectation.
However, we suppose that the institutional positioning for $5,400 remains intact, so a broad sell-off is unlikely.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 4920/4853
Target Price: 5405
Stop Loss: 4785
Valid Until: March 10, 2026, 23:55:00
Support: 4929/4878/4860
Resistance Levels: 4999/5049/5119
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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