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Japanese Bond Yields Rise amid "Normalization" Momentum, while Takaichi Sanae's Election Victory Intensifies Pressure on the Yen
Summary:
Rising Japanese government bond yields primarily reflect "normalization". Takaichi Sanae's overwhelming victory may increase the debt burden or drag down the yen.
Trading
153.645
ENTRY
156.350
TGT
150.000
SL
153.031 +0.353 +0.23%
0
Point
Flat
150.000
SL
CLOSING
153.645
ENTRY
156.350
TGT
Fundamentals
The recent rise in Japanese government bond yields primarily reflects a normalization following years of deflation and persistently low or even negative interest rates. The new administration's largest-scale fiscal plan may exert further upward pressure on yields.
Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's overwhelming election victory, coupled with her clear dovish stance and pro-stimulus policy orientation, may exacerbate Japan's already heavy debt burden and exert downward pressure on the yen.
Despite the JPYUSD's three consecutive days of gains, caution remains warranted as its outlook remains fragile. Keep a close eye on the key level of 151.96 for USDJPY; should the exchange rate fall toward this level, it could trigger a retest of the gap at 147.56.
Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note also fell sharply, extending yesterday's decline following weaker-than-expected retail sales data. The question now is whether the bond market is genuinely signaling that the Federal Reserve will adopt more aggressive easing measures, or if investors are simply reassessing the "sell the U.S." narrative as overstated due to a lack of concrete data support. Today's nonfarm payrolls data may help clarify this uncertainty.
Technical Analysis
Earlier this week, USDJPY declined briefly following Japan's election results. However, the recent downturn is clearly driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields. The drop from 157.65 is viewed as part of a corrective pattern since 159.44. Although further declines toward 152.07 remain possible, strong support is anticipated near 151.96 (the 38.2% retracement of the 139.87 to 159.44 range), likely triggering a rebound. However, a decisive break below 151.96 would signal a bearish trend reversal for the asset, with subsequent targets aiming for the 147.56 gap.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 152.55
Target Price: 156.35
Stop Loss: 150.00
Valid Until: March 8, 2026 23:55:00
Support: 152.07, 151.54, 150.28
Resistance: 154.50, 156.29, 157.68
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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