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Dovish Fed Tilt Lifts Risk Assets
Summary:
Gold prices have continued to climb from the post-FOMC low of $4,182. Market participants are reassessing the monetary-policy outlook after the Fed’s latest rate cut.
CLOSED
4338.68
ENTRY
4286.00
TGT
4389.00
SL
-- -- --
5268
Points
Profit
4286.00
TGT
4285.85
CLOSING
4338.68
ENTRY
4389.00
SL
Fundamentals
Driven by the Fed's dovish stance, gold prices extended their upward momentum for a fourth consecutive trading session, breaching the $4,300 threshold and reaching a new high since October 21 during the first half of Friday's European trading session.
Following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's expression of concerns about the labor market on Wednesday, the dovish-leaning Fed should generally be constructive for risk assets. Wall Street is increasingly pricing in two or more rate cuts by the Fed in 2026.
Furthermore, gold staged a record-breaking rally in 2025, with its value doubling in less than two years. We believe that the primary catalysts driving gold's price appreciation—including central bank gold accumulation, Fed rate cuts, dollar weakness, concerns regarding Fed independence, and ETF inflows—remain fully intact, while the global macroeconomic backdrop continues to be broadly constructive for the precious metal.
According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in the third quarter of this year also reached a record high of 1,313 metric tonnes. This surge was driven by robust investment demand, including purchases through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), gold bars and coins, as well as significant net purchases by central banks worldwide.
Technical Analysis
The robust overnight rally confirms gold’s breakout from the two-week consolidation range. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain deep in positive territory, propelling Friday’s move into the $4,300 handle.
However, as institutional positions initiated at $4,345 approach profit-taking levels, a pullback is imperative. The first downside target is the $4,286 zone, where fresh basing is expected. Whether price can subsequently challenge all-time highs will depend on the resilience of that support band.
Additionally, it should be noted that—due to the asynchronous gold-silver ratio—the unfinished record-high trajectory in the silver market could continue to exert upward pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, any short positioning predicated on a pronounced retracement in gold requires a confirmed cyclical top. Such a top has yet to manifest, warranting caution against large-scale shorting.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 4350
Target Price: 4286
Stop Loss: 4389
Valid Until: 28 December, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 4285/4259/4247
Resistance Levels: 4345/4358/4380
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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