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Market Prices 1% Rate for Next Year, Yet JPY Longs Remain Elusive
Summary:
The market now prices a 25 bp BoJ hike in December and a 1% policy rate by September 2026. Yet doubts about the Bank’s willingness to follow through are capping JPY strength.
Trading
155.237
ENTRY
160.820
TGT
153.600
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
153.600
SL
CLOSING
155.237
ENTRY
160.820
TGT
Fundamentals
Following Governor Ueda’s deliberately ambiguous guidance on 9 December, USDJPY has declined for a third consecutive session.
The Reuters poll conducted 2–9 December shows that most economists expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise its policy rate by 25 bp to 0.75% at the December meeting and to lift borrowing costs to at least 1% by end-September 2026.
According to sources, the BoJ is set to deliver its first rate hike since January at the December meeting. The government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to tolerate the move, given upside inflation risks and a weak yen. 90% of economists surveyed (63 of 70) now forecast that the BoJ will raise the short-term policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75% next week, a sharp increase from 53% in last month’s poll. Just over two-thirds of respondents (37 of 54) expect the policy rate to reach at least 1.00% by end-September 2026.
Scepticism that the BoJ will deliver a 1.00% policy rate—or anything higher—is containing JPY appreciation. Despite recent BoJ guidance pointing to a December hike, upside pressure on the yen has remained modest and USDJPY is still trading above 155.00.
Until the Bank issues a decisively hawkish signal and commits to pushing the real policy rate further into positive territory, investors are unlikely to build meaningful long-JPY exposure.
Technical Analysis
An intraday break below the 156.00 support shelf opens the door to a deeper pullback. Daily oscillators, however, are still in bullish territory, so initial demand is expected in the 155.00–154.68 demand zone, which is the lower bound of the recent range. A daily close below 154.35 would flip the short-term bias to bearish.
Conversely, a sustained bullish rebound in USDJPY through the 156.00 handle would likely lift the spot price toward the 156.60–156.65 supply zone and ultimately to the 157.00 area—the two-week high printed on Tuesday. Follow-through buying should then pave the way for a further extension higher.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 155.20
Target Price: 160.82
Stop Loss: 153.60
Valid Until: 27 December, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 155.15/154.67/154.33
Resistance Levels: 156.19/156.95/157.91
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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