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Euro Rebounds from Three-Week Lows but Remains Under Pressure as Trump’s EU Tariffs Cloud Outlook
Summary:
EUR/USD bounced higher in early European trading Monday, recovering from three-week lows, but the broader bearish trend remains intact amid investor unease following new 30% U.S.
PENDING
1.17000
ENTRY
1.20000
TGT
1.16000
SL
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Point
PENDING
1.16000
SL
CLOSING
1.17000
ENTRY
1.20000
TGT
The Euro staged a modest recovery against the U.S. Dollar on Monday, rebounding from a three-week low as European markets opened, but the move was far from a trend reversal. The EUR/USD pair gained ground during the early European session, trading up from 1.1655 to hover just below the 1.1700 handle. Despite the bounce, the broader outlook for the pair remains clouded by renewed trade tensions and a cautious global mood, particularly in light of aggressive new tariffs announced by the United States over the weekend.
U.S. President Donald Trump revealed plans to impose sweeping 30% levies on all European Union imports, escalating transatlantic trade tensions that had simmered since the previous round of negotiations in April. While markets opened with a relatively measured reaction—unlike the sharp moves seen earlier in the year—investor sentiment remained fragile, keeping the Euro on the defensive and weighing on broader risk appetite.
The new round of tariffs, though aggressive, is being interpreted by many traders as part of a high-stakes negotiation tactic rather than a final declaration of policy. This perception has somewhat cushioned the market reaction. The Euro’s downside was also mitigated by the European Union’s restrained response. Rather than retaliate immediately, Brussels opted for diplomacy, with EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic expressing optimism that a trade agreement with Washington could still be reached before the self-imposed August deadline.
Sefcovic’s remarks were seen as an attempt to de-escalate tensions and maintain the momentum of ongoing negotiations. This has provided a floor beneath the Euro, keeping the currency from sliding deeper despite the fundamentally bearish tilt in the near term. However, with trade rhetoric intensifying and no concrete deal on the table yet, investor caution prevails.
Monday’s economic calendar is light, with little in the way of tier-one data from either side of the Atlantic. Instead, the market's attention is fixed on political developments, including the Eurogroup meeting and a scheduled speech by ECB member Piero Cipollone, which may offer clues on the central bank’s evolving stance in a volatile global environment.
Across the Atlantic, eyes are firmly on Tuesday’s release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June. With inflation trends playing a pivotal role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s policy path, any upside surprise in CPI could reinforce expectations for a delayed or more gradual easing cycle. That, in turn, would lend additional strength to the U.S. Dollar and challenge the Euro’s recovery attempts. Conversely, a softer inflation print could revive speculation of a dovish pivot, creating a temporary tailwind for EUR/USD.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is undergoing a healthy retracement after failing to sustain the bullish momentum that had lifted the pair to 1.1830 — a level not seen in nearly four years — earlier this month. Since then, price action has been confined within a well-defined descending channel, with the pair making lower highs and lower lows, a classic bearish pattern.
Monday’s bounce finds the Euro testing the mid-line of the longer-term ascending channel. The 1.16288 – 1.15774 zone, which once served as stiff resistance, now acts as a potential demand area. This support flip is a textbook structural pivot point, and its ability to hold will be key in determining whether the bullish undertone can reassert itself.
A convincing bounce from this zone could reignite upward momentum, setting the stage for a potential move back toward the 1.2000 psychological level over the coming weeks — assuming fundamental catalysts such as a trade resolution or soft U.S. inflation data emerge. However, a decisive break below the lower boundary of the demand zone and channel support would invalidate the bullish thesis and expose the pair to deeper losses, possibly toward 1.1500 and the 200-day EMA.
TRADE RECEOMMENDATION
BUY EURUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.1700
STOP LOSS: 1.1600
TAKE PROFIT :1.2000
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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