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NZD/USD Stuck Below 0.60 as Traders Eye China GDP, Tariff Fallout
Summary:
The New Zealand Dollar remained under pressure on Monday, slipping to three-week lows amid renewed global trade tensions triggered by U.S. tariff threats.
Trading
0.59750
ENTRY
0.58600
TGT
0.60300
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
0.58600
TGT
CLOSING
0.59750
ENTRY
0.60300
SL
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its losing streak on Monday, pressured by a deteriorating global risk backdrop and a stronger U.S. Dollar, as market sentiment soured following the latest tariff threats from Washington. Risk-sensitive assets such as the Kiwi were hit hard by President Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend of fresh punitive tariffs on major trade partners, heightening fears of renewed trade frictions that could weigh on global growth.
At the time of writing, NZD/USD was trading just under the 0.6000 handle, attempting a modest recovery from the intraday low of 0.5975 touched during the Asian session — its weakest level in three weeks. The pair remains down roughly 0.25% on the day, and the technical backdrop suggests sellers are still in control.
The latest pressure on the Kiwi came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sharp escalation in tariffs on imports from both the European Union and Mexico. The new levies — 30% on EU imports and 30% on Mexican goods — represent a significant jump from the 20% and 25% duties unveiled just weeks earlier on April 2, a date Trump proclaimed “Liberation Day” in reference to American trade policy.
Though markets have not yet reacted with panic, the implications of this aggressive trade stance are clearly being felt in FX. The targeted nations have so far avoided immediate retaliation, instead signaling a willingness to engage in talks ahead of the looming August 1 implementation deadline. Nonetheless, investors remain on edge, concerned that the situation could spiral and reignite a full-scale trade war — a scenario that would be especially damaging for export-dependent economies like New Zealand’s.
The uncertainty is fueling demand for safe-haven assets, boosting the U.S. Dollar and weighing on higher-beta currencies such as the Kiwi, Australian Dollar, and emerging-market FX. Volatility, while contained for now, could rise sharply if rhetoric escalates or if global equity markets begin to buckle under the weight of geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
Providing a partial offset to the risk-off mood was a surprisingly strong set of trade data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Chinese exports surged in May, outpacing market expectations and widening the country’s trade surplus. The data reflects a boost from improved U.S.-China trade relations and suggests that Chinese manufacturing activity may be stabilizing after months of weakness.
For New Zealand, whose economy is tightly linked to Chinese demand — particularly for agricultural exports, dairy, and raw commodities — the upbeat numbers offered a degree of reassurance. With China’s second-quarter GDP figures due out on Tuesday, investors will be watching closely for confirmation that the world’s second-largest economy is regaining momentum. A solid GDP reading could offer the Kiwi some reprieve, especially in the absence of major domestic data this week.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD continues to exhibit a bearish structure, with price action dominated by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows — a textbook definition of a downtrend. There are no signs of bullish divergence on key indicators, suggesting that bears still have control of the market narrative.
The pair recently retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, a common turning point during corrective moves, only to face rejection near the 0.6000 round number — an area reinforced by the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50), which is acting as dynamic resistance. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is beginning to tilt lower after briefly reaching overbought territory, hinting at the emergence of negative divergence that could amplify downside pressure.
Moreover, the pair appears to be trading within a well-defined bearish channel — a continuation pattern that typically results in further declines. Should bearish momentum resume, immediate support lies at 0.5970, followed by 0.5925 and the March swing low near 0.5860. On the upside, any recovery would need to clear the 0.6000 threshold decisively to even begin challenging the bearish bias.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL NZDUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.5975
STOP LOSS: 0.6030
TAKE PROFIT: 0.5860
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