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EUR/USD Climbs on Dovish Fed Expectations
Summary:
EUR/USD strengthened toward the top of its monthly range as weaker US inflation data reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, while hawkish ECB rhetoric continued to support the Euro.
Trading
1.14648
ENTRY
1.15800
TGT
1.14000
SL
1.14365 -0.00053 -0.05%
0
Point
Flat
1.14000
SL
CLOSING
1.14648
ENTRY
1.15800
TGT
The Euro edged higher against the US Dollar on Thursday, climbing toward the 1.1485 area as softer US inflation data prompted investors to sharply reduce expectations of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The Greenback remained under pressure after another round of weaker-than-expected inflation figures reinforced the view that price pressures are easing.
Fresh data released on Wednesday showed US Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly contracted in June, adding to Tuesday's softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The back-to-back inflation readings have led markets to largely rule out a July Fed rate hike while significantly reducing the probability of another increase in September, dragging the US Dollar lower across the board.
In my view, the latest inflation data has shifted market focus away from aggressive Fed tightening and back toward the timing of future policy easing. Unless upcoming economic data surprises to the upside, the US Dollar could remain under pressure in the near term.
The Euro also found support from continued hawkish messaging by European Central Bank officials. Although Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly declined in June, policymakers maintained that further monetary tightening remains on the table if inflation risks persist, helping offset the impact of weaker economic data and keeping the common currency well supported.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is showing signs of strengthening after breaking above a key consolidation range, with the pair now trading around 1.1460 on the 4-hour chart. The recent impulsive rally has carried price through the 1.1450 resistance zone, confirming a bullish breakout and shifting short-term momentum firmly in favor of buyers. Although the pair is pausing after the advance, the current pullback appears to be a healthy retest rather than the start of a broader reversal.
The 1.1445–1.1450 region has now become the key support area. As long as EUR/USD remains above this former resistance zone, the bullish structure remains intact and buyers are likely to retain control. Holding above this level would increase the probability of another leg higher toward the next resistance cluster.
On the upside, bulls will be looking for a decisive move above 1.1480 to confirm the continuation of the breakout. A sustained push through this barrier would expose the next major resistance around 1.1520, with the broader objective located near 1.1580, where significant supply is visible on the chart.
Should sellers force the pair back below 1.1445, bullish momentum would begin to weaken. A sustained break beneath this level could trigger a deeper retracement toward the 1.1380 support zone, where buyers previously stepped in to halt declines.
Momentum indicators continue to favor further gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is likely holding above the neutral 50 level, reflecting positive momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, suggesting that buying pressure continues to outweigh selling interest despite the recent consolidation.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY EUR/USD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.1465
STOP LOSS: 1.1400
TAKE PROFIT: 1.1580
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