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Gold Historically Surpasses the $3,500 Resistance Level, with Bullish Momentum Remaining Robust; Short-term Caution Is Advised
Summary:
Gold prices have historically surpassed US$3,500. The rapid appreciation of gold has largely offset the negative impact of a modest strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, short-term technical indicators reveal an overbought condition, prompting bullish traders to exercise caution before pursuing further upward momentum.
CLOSED
3488.75
ENTRY
3359.00
TGT
3520.00
SL
3550.76 -8.04 -0.23%
3125
Points
Loss
3359.00
TGT
3520.03
CLOSING
3488.75
ENTRY
3520.00
SL
Fundamentals
Gold prices have reached a historic breakout above US$3,500. The increasing prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing concerns over future monetary policy have provided renewed support for the precious metals sector's multi-year rally.
In Tuesday's Asian trading session, spot gold prices temporarily surged by 0.9%, hitting an all-time high of US$3,508.70, surpassing the previous peak established in April. Year-to-date, gold has gained over 30%, making it one of the best-performing commodities.
Gold is a preferred safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic instability and typically benefits from low interest rate environments. This year, amid market turbulence triggered by the global trade conflict initiated by U.S. President Trump, investors have sought refuge, thereby supporting gold prices.
Furthermore, the escalating criticism from the U.S. President towards the Federal Reserve has emerged as a recent catalyst raising investor concerns, with apprehensions about the Fed's independence potentially undermining confidence in the U.S. Following Chairman Powell's cautious signals towards potential rate cuts, market expectations now anticipate a rate reduction by the Federal Reserve this month, providing additional upward momentum. An upcoming key U.S. employment report this Friday may further indicate a weakening labor market, serving as a justification for the Fed's easing measures.
Technical Analysis
During Tuesday's Asian trading session, gold prices extended their upward momentum for the sixth consecutive day, reaching a historic high and surpassing the psychological threshold of US$3,500.
This rally was driven by a bullish breakout above the US$3,450 resistance level, which subsequently turned into support. The breach of the US$3,500 mark was primarily caused by short covering, as stop-loss orders at key resistance levels of US$3,452, US$3,468, and US$3,494 were triggered, resulting in a volume-driven squeeze.
With short positions being liquidated and bullish momentum surpassing April's peak, an ongoing upward trend appears inevitable. However, short-term technical indicators show extreme overbought conditions, prompting caution among gold bulls before pursuing further gains. It is anticipated that this cautious sentiment will persist until the release of upcoming labor market data later this week.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 3492
Target Price: 3359
Stop Loss: 3520
Valid Until: September 17, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 3470, 3465, 3454
Resistance: 3489, 3482, 3509
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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