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Gold Maintains a High-Volatility Downtrend, Rallies Still Viewed as Selling Opportunities
Summary:
After recording extreme gains in January, gold has seen a sharp expansion in high-level volatility. Rumors of a more hawkish Fed chair candidate, combined with a rebound in the USD, triggered a rapid correction in gold prices. On Friday, gold fell below the USD 5,000 level, with short-term topping signals beginning to emerge.
PENDING
5400.00
ENTRY
4519.00
TGT
5475.00
SL
4918.02 +259.42 +5.57%
--
Point
PENDING
4519.00
TGT
CLOSING
5400.00
ENTRY
5475.00
SL
Fundamentals
Gold surged at an exceptional pace in January, with the monthly gain once approaching USD 1,300. Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing global economic uncertainty, safe-haven flows poured heavily into the gold market, pushing prices toward their strongest monthly performance since 1980.
However, market sentiment reversed noticeably in the latter half of the week. Rumors that Warsh could replace Powell as Fed chair and adopt a more hawkish stance gained traction during the Asian session, prompting markets to reassess the future path of monetary policy. Under this influence, gold prices plunged more than 4% intraday on Friday.
As expectations for a “less dovish” Fed chair intensified, the USD staged a short-term rebound. At the same time, gold had already been in a clearly overbought condition, with the prior rapid price advance lacking fresh fundamental support.
The intraday “flash crash” observed on Thursday signaled that the upside momentum of this rally was beginning to fade. By Friday, gold broke below the USD 5,000 psychological level, with intraday losses expanding to more than 7%. Risks at elevated price levels were rapidly released, and short-term topping signals became increasingly evident.
During the correction, part of the safe-haven demand rotated out of gold and temporarily shifted toward USD assets. Previously accumulated floating profits amplified the incentive for profit-taking at high levels.
Looking ahead, in the absence of renewed geopolitical escalation or strong macro-level stimulus in the near term, traders may continue to lock in profits. Gold may enter a phase of high-level consolidation or further correction in the short term, with the risk of continued volatility expansion remaining elevated.
Technical Analysis
Gold’s consecutive sharp pullbacks on Friday are consistent with expectations of heightened volatility following institutional selling. From the perspective of the current structural trend, large price swings are likely to persist into early next month. During this period, momentum indicators are prone to frequent breakouts and are therefore not recommended as trading references. Positioning should instead be based on key institutional selling levels.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 5400
Target Price: 4519
Stop Loss: 5475
Valid Until: February 25, 2026 23:55:00
Support: 5045 / 4990 / 4940
Resistance: 5188 / 5241 / 5409
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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