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UK Manufacturing Data Boosts the Pound, Japan's Inflation Concerns Linger
Summary:
The final UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) hit a 17-month high, reigniting inflation risks. Japan’s final Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5, with economic growth picking up, yet inflation risks persist.
PENDING
212.000
ENTRY
218.690
TGT
209.500
SL
212.959 +0.297 +0.14%
--
Point
PENDING
209.500
SL
CLOSING
212.000
ENTRY
218.690
TGT
Fundamentals
The UK's final Manufacturing PMI for January stood at 51.8, up from 50.6 in December and marking a 17-month high. The index signals that UK manufacturing has demonstrated resilience amid headwinds including geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, getting 2026 off to a solid start.
Rob Dobson of S&P Global Market Intelligence noted a marked strengthening in economic growth momentum. Output and order book growth accelerated, with new export business rising for the first time in four years, driven primarily by demand from Europe, China and the US. Business confidence has also rebounded to its highest level since before the Autumn Budget 2024, as firms shift their focus to future opportunities rather than short-term policy and geopolitical risks.
The labour market showed initial signs of stabilisation. While hiring remained weak, the pace of job cuts slowed to a 15-month low. However, inflationary pressures are edging up; a combination of a higher minimum wage, increased employer National Insurance costs and rising metal prices is impacting supply chains and could pose a potential constraint on profit margins in the coming months.
Japan's manufacturing sector returned to expansion in January, with the final Manufacturing PMI registering 51.5. This marked the first improvement in operating conditions since mid-2025 and the strongest pace of growth since August 2022, providing initial signs of a cyclical recovery taking shape.
The details were encouraging. S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated that both output and new orders saw their sharpest rises in nearly four years, while export demand grew for the first time since 2022. Employment growth also accelerated to its fastest pace since September 2022, suggesting the sector "is gearing up for further output growth in the months ahead".
Nonetheless, cost pressures have re-emerged as a potential constraint. Input price inflation climbed to a near one-year high, partly due to the weaker Japanese yen, and firms have passed on some of these costs to consumers. Whether these price pressures intensify will be key to assessing the sustainability of the economic recovery.
Technical Analysis
GBPJPY has trended higher in a volatile range intraday, yet the overall trend remains neutral. As long as bears hold the key level of 214.35, downside risks persist even in the event of a strong rebound. However, in the short term, the upward volatility trend will be maintained as bulls break above the 212.16 level.
Therefore, short-term trading is recommended for the pair.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 212.00
Target Price: 218.69
Stop Loss: 209.50
Valid Until: 23:55:00, February 27, 2026
Support: 211.80/211.29/210.04
Resistance: 212.68/213.50/214.35
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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