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Gold to Hit $4,500 Psychological Level Early, Eyeing $4,600 Mid-Term High
Summary:
As the week's trading heads into the close, signals are emerging: the 10-year UST yield is slicing decisively below 4%, a move that may mark a regime shift in risk sentiment. Gold is far from over-owned and the structural macro tailwinds remain intact.
CLOSED
4296.47
ENTRY
4608.00
TGT
4238.00
SL
4364.70 +113.68 +2.67%
5847
Points
Loss
4238.00
SL
4237.75
CLOSING
4296.47
ENTRY
4608.00
TGT
Fundamentals
Driven by geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut expectations, central-bank accumulation, de-dollarization and surging ETF inflows, gold has rallied >65% YTD. The $4,500 target could arrive ahead of schedule. However, this contingent on how long trade angst and U.S. shutdown risk linger.
Market: Heightened growth concerns have driven U.S. Treasury yields lower, steepening the rate-cut curve for the Fed over the coming months.
On Thursday the 10-year benchmark touched an intraday low of 3.975%—its first breach of 4% since mid-September and the lowest print since shortly after the early-April tariff announcement. As Treasury prices rally, U.S. yields will decline.
Further denting sentiment, two regional banks flagged loan-book issues, sparking a late-day slide in regional-bank shares that dragged the index lower—another tail-wind for gold bids.
Technical Analysis
Gold's rally is driven by heightened political uncertainty, an escalating trade war, and shifting monetary-policy expectations. A tactical pullback on profit-taking is possible, but the fundamental and technical backdrop remains unequivocally bullish.
On the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD has strong support at $4,280 and is consolidating just below the early high of $4,379. Any deeper retracement is expected to find bids in the $4,280–$4,275 zone before renewed upside momentum. Provided the broader bullish structure holds, this would set the stage for the next leg higher, with the $4,400–$4,600 window the next objective.
The MACD confirms the constructive outlook: its signal line is well above the zero bound and rising, underscoring clear buyer dominance.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 4280
Target Price: 4608
Stop Loss: 4238
Valid Until: November 1, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 4280/4272/4260
Resistance: 4351/4379/4418
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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TradingGold to Hit $4,500 Psychological Level Early, Eyeing $4,600 Mid-Term High
LOSS -6006 Points
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