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Inflation Rebound Fails to Dent Rate-Cut Bets, NZD Upside Seen Capped
Summary:
NZDUSD edged slightly higher in consolidation on Monday, but the CPI release failed to reverse the bearish outlook.
PENDING
0.57950
ENTRY
0.54800
TGT
0.59300
SL
-- -- --
--
Point
PENDING
0.54800
TGT
CLOSING
0.57950
ENTRY
0.59300
SL
Fundamentals
Following the release of New Zealand’s latest consumer-inflation print, NZDUSD ticked higher at the open of the new week. Spot failed to attract follow-through buying, however, and remained anchored near session lows around 0.5720 through the European morning.
Monday’s data showed 3Q CPI inflation re-entering the top of the RBNZ’s 1–3 % target band, lending the NZD modest support. The 3.0% YoY pace—up from 2.7% in 2Q—was largely in line with consensus and consistent with the RBNZ’s August MPS projection.
Although the print reduces the probability of another outsized cut—such as the 50 bp reduction delivered at the previous meeting—it does not materially alter the Bank’s easing bias.
The RBNZ has indicated that, as economic slack widens, inflation will gradually return to 2% by mid-2026. The latest release confirms that while imported (tradables) inflation has rebounded, non-tradables inflation—driven by domestic factors—continues to moderate, reinforcing the Bank’s assessment that underlying pressures are waning. This leaves room for a further 25 bp reduction later this year.
Market watch: Although headline inflation has ticked up, the increase is concentrated in sectors with low cyclical sensitivity and is likely to prove largely transitory. We continue to expect inflation to drift back to within the RBNZ’s target band over the coming year.
From the RBNZ’s perspective, price pressures in discretionary or rate-sensitive segments remain subdued. Nothing in today’s release materially challenges their baseline that inflation will moderate over the next twelve months.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has just tagged the 100% projection of the 0.6119–0.5799 down-wave last week before printing a bullish reaction. With the 4-hour MACD now showing positive divergence, a short-term base may be forming at 0.5681. Some near-term consolidation is likely, and a more forceful rebound cannot be ruled out.
Nevertheless, while the 0.5844 resistance caps, the broader bearish structure remains intact. A sustained break of 0.5681 would re-open the 161.8% extension of the 0.6119 decline at 0.5488—virtually coincident with the key 2025 low at 0.5484.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 0.5795
Target Price: 0.5480
Stop Loss: 0.5930
Valid Until: November 4, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 0.5638/0.5655/0.5625
Resistance: 0.5806/0.5646/0.5872
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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