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Holding Support at the Averages Could Spark a Rally Toward Resistance
Summary:
If this level holds firmly, the pair could stage another bullish leg toward 0.6590, where the next resistance level lies.
CLOSED
0.65252
ENTRY
0.65900
TGT
0.64600
SL
-- -- --
448
Points
Profit
0.64600
SL
0.65700
CLOSING
0.65252
ENTRY
0.65900
TGT
Australia’s external sector delivered mixed signals earlier on Thursday. July’s trade figures revealed a notable improvement, with the surplus widening to AUD 7.31 billion compared to AUD 5.37 billion in June, comfortably beating forecasts of AUD 4.92 billion. The improvement came as exports climbed 3.3%, supported by stronger shipments of iron ore, liquefied natural gas, gold, and beef. At the same time, imports slipped 1.3%, weighed down by weaker demand for consumer goods and gold.
In international developments, Bloomberg reported late Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to implement his trade agreement with Japan. The deal establishes a maximum tariff of 15% on most imports from Japan, including automobiles and auto parts. Additionally, Japan committed to fast-tracking a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases, a move seen as strengthening agricultural trade ties between Washington and Tokyo.
Domestically, U.S. economic data continued to offer a mixed picture. The labor market showed further signs of cooling as weekly initial jobless claims ticked higher. At the same time, the trade deficit widened in July while the services sector posted its strongest expansion in six months.
The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade balance deficit surged to -$78.3 billion in July, its widest in four months, compared with -$59.1 billion in June and above market forecasts of -$75.7 billion. The data suggested that businesses may have accelerated imports to secure supplies before new tariffs came into effect. The report also revealed that the U.S. trade deficit with China expanded for the first time in several months, while the gap with Mexico widened modestly.
Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52 in August from 50.1 previously, exceeding expectations of 51. The data signaled a firm rebound in service-sector activity. However, the Prices Paid subindex surged to 69.2—the second-highest level since late 2022—highlighting persistent inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs and elevated input costs.
Labor market data also disappointed. The ADP Employment Change for August showed a gain of 54K jobs, below the forecast of 65K, though July’s figure was revised upward from 104K to 106K. ADP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Nela Richardson, commented that while the year began with solid job creation, momentum has been rattled by rising uncertainty. She pointed to labor shortages, cautious consumer behavior, and disruptions related to artificial intelligence as factors slowing hiring.
On the monetary policy front, New York Fed President John Williams reiterated that he expects gradual rate cuts over time, provided the economy evolves in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, Fed Board nominee Stephen Miran stressed the importance of maintaining the central bank’s independence, though he refrained from commenting on whether he would advise President Trump against removing Fed officials.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is currently rebounding near its 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart, located at 0.6499 and 0.6506 respectively. The convergence of these averages suggests that price is hovering around its local mean, effectively acting as dynamic support. If this level holds firmly, the pair could stage another bullish leg toward 0.6590, where the next resistance level lies. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 48, still within neutral territory, leaving room for a potential upward move.
On the downside, the next support level is seen near 0.6489. A break below this area could accelerate bearish momentum, with the following support situated at 0.6414. Any unexpected surprises in upcoming data releases could trigger a test of this lower region.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.6523
Target price: 0.6590
Stop loss: 0.6460
Validity: Sep 12, 2025 15:00:00
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