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Lagarde Issues a Warning! Is the Euro in Jeopardy?
Summary:
EURUSD is facing challenges. Amid intensifying fiscal concerns, the euro is struggling under the influence of rising European government bond yields.
EXPIRED
1.16200
ENTRY
1.13000
TGT
1.18300
SL
1.17154 +0.00661 +0.57%
--
Point
EXPIRED
1.13000
TGT
1.17581
CLOSING
1.16200
ENTRY
1.18300
SL
Fundamentals
According to reports on September 1st local time, as the date of the parliamentary confidence vote on September 8th approaches, the risk of the French government collapsing is increasing. Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank(ECB), warned that day, "Any risk of a government collapse in the eurozone is a cause for concern."
EURUSD is grappling with difficulties. With fiscal concerns on the rise, the euro is finding it tough going due to the increase in European government bond yields. The yield on France's 30-year government bonds stands at 4.5%, the highest level since 2009. Germany's 30-year government bond yield is 3.41%, the highest since 2011. Concerns about France's debt burden are at the core of the confidence vote that French Prime Minister François Bayrou is scheduled to face next week. Germany's medium-term fiscal plan projects that by 2029, Germany will take on approximately 500 billion euros in new net borrowing to support higher infrastructure and defense spending. However, the downside potential of the euro may be curbed as the persistent inflation in the eurozone has strengthened the market's expectation that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. In August, the eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.1% YoY, higher than market expectations and the ECB's 2.0% target.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that he expects the Supreme Court to approve Trump's use of the 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs on trading partners. Even if the Supreme Court does not approve, the government has a backup plan. Meanwhile, Trump promised to seek a "quick ruling" from the Supreme Court. The US dollar is facing challenges as the US manufacturing business activity contracted slightly in August. The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 48.0 in July to 48.7, but it was lower than the expected 49.0. At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index edged up slightly from 43.4 to 43.8, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index (an inflation indicator) fell from 64.8 to 63.7. Later in the North American trading session, the market will focus on the US JOLTS Job Openings data and the Fed's Beige Book. Traders will also keep an eye on the upcoming labor market data this week, including the ADP Employment Change, average hourly earnings, and non-farm payrolls for August. These key reports could influence the Fed's policy decision in September.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart of EURUSD, the MACD fast and slow lines have formed a death cross, the bullish energy column is gradually weakening, and the highs are continuously decreasing. Meanwhile, the RSI value is 46, and its highs are also gradually dropping. The price has not reached a new high, forming a head-and-shoulders top pattern, which is also a signal of bearish divergence. In the short term, the trend will be mainly oscillatory or bearish.
The current price has fallen below the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands but is holding above the EMA50 support. If it holds above this support, the upward trend will continue. If it breaks below, the price will further decline towards the lower line of the Bollinger Bands (1.148) and the EMA200(1.125).
On the weekly chart, the price is oscillating upwards along the EMA12, but the slope has flattened. The RSI value is 59, and its highs are gradually decreasing. The MACD has formed a high-level death cross. The fast and slow lines are moving back towards the 0 line but are still far away, indicating that the adjustment is not yet complete. Once the price breaks below the EMA12, it will fall to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (1.141) or the EMA50 (1.12). Therefore, it is advisable to go short on rallies in the short-term trading strategy.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.162
Target Price: 1.13
Stop Loss: 1.183
Support: 1.145/1.14/1.13
Resistance: 1.17/1.183/1.19
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20 years of trading experience, specializing in naked price action analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Chan Theory. Has conducted in-depth research on forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Achieved a tenfold profit during the 2005 bull market and doubled profits within one month of entering the crypto market in 2015. Adheres to the trading philosophy: "Trend is king; focus on the big picture, act on
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