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NZD/USD Slips as Dollar Strengthens Ahead of U.S. Manufacturing Data
Summary:
The New Zealand dollar weakened sharply on Tuesday, with NZD/USD slipping toward 0.5850 as a resurgent U.S. dollar regained ground ahead of key manufacturing data releases.
Trading
0.58700
ENTRY
0.57000
TGT
0.59200
SL
0.58563 -0.00226 -0.38%
0
Point
Flat
0.57000
TGT
CLOSING
0.58700
ENTRY
0.59200
SL
The New Zealand dollar stumbled on Tuesday, falling nearly 0.8% against the U.S. dollar to trade close to 0.5850 during the European session. The move reflected a broad rebound in the greenback, which has regained traction after weeks of underperformance as investors positioned themselves for a busy run of U.S. economic data and renewed policy speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against six of its major peers, climbed 0.6% to 98.30 at the time of writing, snapping a month-long losing streak. The dollar’s rebound is notable given that markets had been steadily pricing in a September Fed rate cut, with traders betting that moderating inflation and signs of cooling demand would push policymakers toward easing. Instead, the latest positioning suggests a partial rethink is underway, with market participants taking a more cautious stance ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.
Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August. The ISM survey is expected to show a modest uptick to 49.0 from 48.0 in July, signaling ongoing contraction in the factory sector but at a slower pace. A stronger-than-expected print could further underpin the greenback by tempering expectations of aggressive Fed easing, while a miss could quickly undo the dollar’s rally.
For the Kiwi, the macro backdrop remains challenging. New Zealand’s domestic calendar is relatively light this week, leaving NZD/USD vulnerable to external drivers and shifts in global risk sentiment. With few local catalysts to provide support, the pair has been largely at the mercy of broader dollar moves and shifting appetite for risk assets.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has reversed after failing to sustain gains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.5900. The rejection at this level triggered fresh selling pressure, with momentum indicators pointing toward further downside. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped toward the 40 mark, suggesting that a break lower could accelerate bearish momentum.
Key support is now eyed in the 0.5800–0.5850 zone. A decisive move below this range would open the door to April’s low at 0.5730, followed by the psychologically important 0.5700 handle. On the upside, immediate resistance sits near 0.5900, where the EMA converges, with further hurdles at 0.5950 and the 0.6000 psychological barrier.
The broader outlook for NZD/USD remains tilted to the downside unless the pair can reclaim and hold above 0.5900.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL NZDUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.5870
STOP LOSS: 0.5920
TAKE PROFIT: 0.5700
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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