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XAU/USD Eyes $3,600 if Fed Delivers on Aggressive Easing Bets
Summary:
Gold steadied near record highs on Wednesday, supported by strong bets on Fed rate cuts and persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainty, though overbought conditions and caution ahead of U.S. jobs data capped gains.
CLOSED
3549.79
ENTRY
3600.00
TGT
3510.00
SL
3586.48 +40.87 +1.15%
3025
Points
Profit
3510.00
SL
3580.04
CLOSING
3549.79
ENTRY
3600.00
TGT
Gold prices steadied near historic highs on Wednesday, with spot XAU/USD consolidating around the $3,530–$3,540 zone during the European session. Investors remained cautious ahead of key U.S. labor market data, but the metal’s safe-haven appeal and expectations of imminent Federal Reserve easing continued to underpin demand.
The yellow metal has surged to unprecedented levels in recent weeks, driven largely by the growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates when it meets later this month. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in more than a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut on September 17, with traders also expecting at least two additional reductions by year-end. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive compared to government bonds or cash.
Political developments in Washington have added to the metal’s resilience. President Donald Trump has continued to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to loosen policy more aggressively, while his decision to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud has raised eyebrows about the central bank’s independence. The move has unsettled investors already grappling with concerns about fiscal deficits, inflationary pressures, and global bond market volatility.
Further complicating the macro backdrop, Trump announced plans to seek an expedited Supreme Court ruling on tariffs recently deemed illegal by a U.S. appeals court. The legal uncertainty surrounding trade policy has introduced fresh risks for markets, bolstering the safe-haven appeal of gold. “When you combine political interference in monetary policy with unpredictable trade policy, investors naturally gravitate towards gold,” one London-based strategist told me.
Meanwhile, rising fiscal deficits and stubborn inflation have kept global bond yields elevated, fueling concerns about government balance sheets. The overnight weakness in both the British pound and Japanese yen reflected these anxieties, though the U.S. dollar managed to claw back some ground. That limited gold’s immediate upside, as some traders refrained from chasing fresh highs amid technically overbought conditions.
Market participants are now turning their attention to the U.S. data calendar for directional cues. Wednesday’s JOLTS Job Openings report could spark intraday volatility, while Thursday’s ADP private payrolls and ISM Services PMI are also in focus. Ultimately, the week’s spotlight will be Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may determine how aggressively the Fed moves on rates this autumn. A soft print would cement market expectations for further easing, potentially unlocking fresh record highs for bullion. Conversely, an upside surprise could trigger profit-taking and short-term corrections.
Technical Analysis
From a charting perspective, gold remains firmly entrenched in a bullish trend. Prices have repeatedly tested the $3,535–$3,560 resistance band, with a clean four-hour close above this range likely to pave the way for further upside towards $3,580–$3,600. The metal’s RSI shows signs of overheating, flashing negative divergence signals, which suggests that consolidation or mild pullbacks may occur before another leg higher. Still, the broader bias remains upward, supported by the dominance of the long-term bullish trendline.
As long as gold sustains above minor support at $3,500, buyers are expected to defend dips aggressively. Any break below this threshold could trigger a deeper retracement towards $3,470, though such moves are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities given the macro backdrop.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY GOLD
ENTRY PRICE: 3550
STOP LOSS: 3510
TAKE PROFIT: 3600
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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