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Euro Surges as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Fuels Bets on Larger Fed Rate Cut
Summary:
The euro surged against the dollar after U.S. jobs data showed just 22K new payrolls in August, well below expectations.
Trading
1.17296
ENTRY
1.18500
TGT
1.16500
SL
1.17154 +0.00661 +0.57%
0
Point
Flat
1.16500
SL
CLOSING
1.17296
ENTRY
1.18500
TGT
The euro rallied sharply against the U.S. dollar on Friday after a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report cast fresh doubts on the strength of the world’s largest economy, raising the prospect of a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.
The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by just 22,000 jobs in August, a fraction of the 75,000 expected and well below July’s revised 79,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%, marking the highest level since early 2021. At the same time, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, broadly in line with market forecasts.
The disappointing headline print sent shockwaves through financial markets. The euro climbed more than 40 pips, with EUR/USD reaching 1.1740, a gain of nearly 0.70% on the day. Traders rushed to recalibrate expectations for Federal Reserve policy, betting that the central bank will need to respond more decisively to prevent the economy from slipping further into a slowdown.
U.S. Treasury yields tumbled in the aftermath of the report. The benchmark 10-year yield fell to 4.09%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.50%, both at their lowest levels since April 7. The steep decline highlighted growing conviction that the Fed will not only cut interest rates at its September 16–17 meeting but could even deliver a larger-than-expected move.
While markets had largely priced in a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut, the stark weakness in labor market growth has fueled speculation of a more aggressive 50 bps cut. Such a move would mark one of the most forceful policy responses since the pandemic, underscoring policymakers’ concerns about slowing momentum across the economy.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major peers, fell sharply below the 98.00 handle, trading near 97.65, down almost 0.65% on the day. The DXY is now testing the lower end of the narrow trading band that has constrained the dollar since early August, leaving it vulnerable to further downside if the Fed signals more dovish intent.
The euro’s rally comes against a backdrop of persistent dollar fragility. The common currency has been supported not by robust Eurozone data—where growth remains tepid—but by the perception that the Fed has less room for maneuver than the European Central Bank (ECB).
For investors, the dynamic reflects a broader reassessment of relative monetary policy trajectories. The ECB, while cautious, has not faced the same degree of urgency to pivot aggressively. By contrast, the Fed is increasingly seen as being on the defensive, forced to offset economic weakness with policy easing even as inflationary pressures remain moderately sticky.
Technical Analysis 
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has extended its gains in intraday trading, successfully overcoming the downward pressure exerted by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). The pair is currently riding a short-term bullish wave, trading alongside a supportive upward bias line that has provided resilience through recent sessions.
However, momentum indicators suggest the rally may be stretched in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pushed into overbought territory, flashing negative overlapping signals that often precede corrective pullbacks. This suggests that while the broader bias remains tilted to the upside, traders should be cautious of potential profit-taking or consolidation before another leg higher.
Immediate resistance for EUR/USD sits near 1.1765–1.1780, levels that could cap gains in the short run. A sustained break above that zone would open the door toward 1.1850, while initial support is seen around 1.1690–1.1700, followed by stronger footing at 1.1650.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY EURUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 1.1730
STOP LOSS: 1.1650
TAKE PROFIT: 1.1850
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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