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Gold Surges to Record High Above $3,580 as Weak U.S. Jobs Report Fuels Fed Cut Bets
Summary:
Gold surged to a record high above $3,580 after weak U.S. jobs data stoked bets on aggressive Fed rate cuts.
PENDING
3600.00
ENTRY
3700.00
TGT
3570.00
SL
3586.48 +40.87 +1.15%
--
Point
PENDING
3570.00
SL
CLOSING
3600.00
ENTRY
3700.00
TGT
Gold extended its remarkable rally to uncharted territory on Friday, hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,586 per ounce, as mounting evidence of a U.S. labor market slowdown reinforced expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. At the time of writing, spot gold (XAU/USD) was trading around $3,580, up nearly 0.95% on the day, marking its fifth consecutive weekly gain as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets amid broad U.S. dollar weakness and tumbling Treasury yields.
The catalyst came from a softer-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, a sharp miss from market forecasts of 75,000. July’s reading was revised slightly higher to 79,000, but that did little to offset concerns over slowing employment momentum. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, broadly in line with expectations.
The weak headline figure capped off a string of disappointing labor indicators over the past month. Private payrolls from ADP showed just a 54,000 increase in August, down from 106,000 prior. JOLTS job openings slipped to 7.18 million, their lowest in over three years, while initial jobless claims climbed to 237,000, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, the ISM employment sub-indexes for both manufacturing (43.8) and services (46.5) remained mired in contractionary territory.
The soft data has reinforced the narrative that the Fed’s focus has shifted from battling inflation to cushioning the economy from a cooling labor market. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 16-17, traders are betting the central bank will act decisively. Markets are already pricing in almost a full 25 basis point rate cut, but Friday’s disappointing NFP figures have fueled speculation of a larger 50 bps move to jump-start growth.
For gold, the macro backdrop is highly supportive. A dovish Fed tilt, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and sustained dollar weakness form a powerful tailwind for bullion. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell back toward recent lows, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its decline, both of which amplify gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold has been carving out gains within a well-defined ascending channel over the medium term. The metal recently broke above a major resistance zone, which had capped rallies in previous months, signaling renewed bullish conviction.
Currently, gold faces a key psychological and technical barrier at the $3,500 level, which now acts as immediate support following the breakout. The near-term outlook suggests some consolidation below this zone as bulls absorb profit-taking before attempting another leg higher.
If momentum persists, a decisive breakout above $3,600 could pave the way toward higher medium-term targets at $3,700 and $3,900, while a sustained pullback below $3,500 would risk testing channel support near $3,450. As long as prices hold above the recently reclaimed resistance, the bullish structure remains intact.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY GOLD
ENTRY PRICE: 3600
STOP LOSS: 3570
TAKE PROFIT: 3700
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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