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USD/JPY Slides as Weak U.S. Jobs Report Triggers Dollar Selloff, Bearish Momentum Builds
Summary:
USD/JPY slumped sharply on Friday as weak U.S. job growth reignited recession fears, driving Treasury yields and the dollar lower.
Trading
147.000
ENTRY
145.000
TGT
148.500
SL
147.387 -1.070 -0.72%
0
Point
Flat
145.000
TGT
CLOSING
147.000
ENTRY
148.500
SL
The Japanese yen strengthened sharply against the U.S. dollar on Friday, with USD/JPY reversing its early-session gains and tumbling more than 0.7% as fresh labor market data deepened concerns over the health of the U.S. economy. The move marked a stark turnaround for the pair, which had comfortably traded above 148.00 in Asian and European hours, only to retreat toward the 147.00 handle after U.S. markets opened.
As of late New York trading, USD/JPY stood near 147.30, extending losses after disappointing nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data sent U.S. Treasury yields tumbling and fueled a wave of selling pressure against the greenback.
The August jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that employers added just 22,000 positions, far short of economists’ forecast of 75,000. The release not only undershot expectations but also included downward revisions to previous months, with June’s tally cut from a modest 14,000 gain to a net loss of 13,000. That revision underscored the slowdown’s persistence and painted a far more fragile picture of the labor market than previously assumed.
Adding to the downbeat tone, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, from 4.2% in July. The labor force participation rate edged slightly higher to 62.3%, but the increase failed to offset the broader sense of weakness emanating from the data.
The dollar’s immediate reaction was pronounced. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major peers, sank 0.65% to 97.62, reflecting broad-based losses across major FX markets. Treasury yields fell in tandem, with the 10-year yield sliding as investors rushed into government bonds amid speculation the Federal Reserve may be forced to ease policy sooner than expected if the slowdown continues.
For USD/JPY, the shift in market sentiment was particularly stark. The pair’s earlier resilience—bolstered by relatively higher U.S. yields—evaporated as bond markets repriced growth risks. With the yen often benefiting from safe-haven demand, traders flocked back into the Japanese currency.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY’s reversal appears to have confirmed the pair’s vulnerability to further downside moves. On the intraday chart, the pair was rejected at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), which acted as a ceiling and reinforced the prevailing bearish corrective trend.
The price action remains aligned with a short-term descending trendline, suggesting the path of least resistance is lower. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had eased from overbought territory earlier in the week, has room to fall further, opening the door for additional declines if momentum persists.
Should the pair fail to reclaim the 148.00 handle, traders may eye support near the 146.50 level, with a break below potentially accelerating the slide toward the mid-145.00s. Conversely, sustained buying above 148.00 would be required to invalidate the bearish setup and restore bullish confidence.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL USDJPY
ENTRY PRICE: 147.00
STOP LOSS: 148.50
TAKE PROFIT: 145.00
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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