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OPEC+ Ramps Up Production Again – Will Short Positions Rise?
Summary:
OPEC+ decided to increase production again in August, accentuating the market's supply glut, pointing towards bearish expectations for crude oil prices.
PENDING
68.200
ENTRY
63.800
TGT
70.500
SL
65.830 -0.026 -0.04%
--
Point
PENDING
63.800
TGT
CLOSING
68.200
ENTRY
70.500
SL
Fundamentals
Recently, OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to increase production by another 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This move marks the fourth consecutive "unfreezing" of production quotas since April, bringing the total increase to 2.5 million bpd. While intended to capture more market share, it directly intensifies the global supply glut.
Market interpretations of inventory data show divergence: The UAE Energy Minister claimed that no evidence of significant inventory accumulation is seen. However, deeper analysis of shipping and terminal data indicates that the new production is not being absorbed by end demand, confirming that the fundamental logic of oversupply remains unchanged.
Simultaneously, while military friction in the Middle East last month briefly pushed oil prices higher, risk premiums quickly receded as parties involved showed restraint. The market now views this conflict as unlikely to cause lasting disruption to the supply chain.
Moreover, the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest annual production forecast was revised down only slightly, from 13.42 million bpd to 13.37 million bpd. This minimal reduction is insufficient to counterbalance OPEC+'s production surge. US inventory data also remains persistently high, effectively neutralizing any potential price boost from anticipated output cuts.
All signs point to one conclusion: The fundamental imbalance between oil supply and demand shows no real improvement, continuing to exert persistent downward pressure on crude oil prices.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude has seen a significant correction from its June highs. The MA10 and MA20 have successively pierced downward through the MA60 and MA144, forming death crosses. The recent downward cross of the MA60 below the MA144 further confirms intensifying mid-to-long-term selling pressure.
Currently, WTI appears to be in a corrective rebound phase following the sharp decline. It is now approaching the first significant resistance level overhead at $68.50. If prices weaken below this resistance level, WTI could potentially fall further to test the support near $64.00. In contrast, if this resistance level is breached to the upside, WTI might instead rise to test the next resistance at 69.50 or even 70.00 (the psychological level).
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 68.20
Target price: 63.80
Stop loss: 70.50
Valid Until: July 23, 2025, 23:00:00
Support: 64.68/63.70
Resistance: 68.50/69.50
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