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Tariff Escalation Sparks Another Wave of Bullish Sentiment
Summary:
The Trump administration's escalation of tariffs has driven a resurgence in gold prices, with technical analysis indicating a head and shoulders bottom pattern that further enhances the potential for an upward trend.
CLOSED
3326.37
ENTRY
3395.00
TGT
3295.00
SL
3341.79 +17.98 +0.54%
3137
Points
Loss
3295.00
SL
3295.00
CLOSING
3326.37
ENTRY
3395.00
TGT
Fundamentals
The current upward momentum in gold prices is driven by policy expectation divergences, risk aversion premiums, and the weakening of the US dollar's creditworthiness.
Firstly, the escalation of tariffs under the Trump administration has heightened global supply chain risks: on July 7, tariffs of 25% to 40% were announced on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, affecting critical commodities such as semiconductors and agricultural products. This directly impacts industries accounting for 18% of global trade volume. The move not only elevates US import costs—Oxford Economics forecasts Q4 inflation could surge to 3.5%—but also accelerates de-dollarization among emerging market central banks. China's central bank has increased gold reserves for eight consecutive months, adding 70,000 ounces in June, continuing a trend of annual gold purchases exceeding 1,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, reinforcing gold's strategic long-term value.
Furthermore, the short-term rebound of the US dollar fails to conceal the deepening sovereign debt crisis: despite the US Dollar Index surging to 97.65 on the back of robust non-farm payroll data (a weekly increase of 0.58%), the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" by the U.S. Senate will add US$3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, potentially pushing total national debt beyond US$50 trillion. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has acknowledged that the debt trajectory is "unsustainable," undermining the dollar's creditworthiness and highlighting gold's role as an inflation hedge.
Finally, the anticipation of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks create a hedging support: although June's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the contraction of 33,000 in ADP employment reveals structural vulnerabilities in the labor market, with market expectations for a September rate cut remaining anchored at 60%. Coupled with escalations in uranium enrichment activities at Iran's nuclear facilities and attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, the geopolitical conflict index has risen to 87 (near the critical threshold of 90), with safe-haven buying potentially triggering automated trading algorithms at any moment.
Technical Analysis
In the 1D timeframe, gold experienced a prior correction to 3250, forming a double bottom pattern, which reinforced bullish momentum. The SMA system continues to display a bullish alignment, indicating that the overall upward trend remains intact. This further enhances the likelihood of short-term continued rally.
Additionally, the previous day's candlestick closed with a long lower shadow doji, confirming the 3290-3300 range as a strong support level. After dipping to 3296 yesterday, prices quickly rebounded to close at 3336, validating the resilience of the bullish defense.
In the 4H timeframe, after establishing a support level at 3250, the gold price's candlestick pattern is gradually forming a head and shoulders bottom configuration, which further enhances the likelihood of a short-term upward trend. The initial resistance target is expected to be around the 3400 level.
Trading Recommendations
Trade Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 3330.00
Target Price: 3395.00
Stop Loss: 3295.00
Valid Until: July 22, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 3296.31, 3247.90
Resistance: 3365.54, 3400.00
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