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Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
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Options Market Wagers on Further Dollar Weakness Over Next 3–6 Months
Summary:
The Dollar Index slid roughly 2% in August, as both technical and fundamental indicators point to additional downside.
Trading
97.670
ENTRY
95.100
TGT
99.980
SL
98.190 +0.130 +0.13%
0
Point
Flat
95.100
TGT
CLOSING
97.670
ENTRY
99.980
SL
Fundamentals
The U.S. Dollar Index shed about 2% last month, erasing a portion of July's advance—the first monthly gain since President Donald Trump took office. With the economy flashing slowdown signals and the Fed poised to resume monetary easing, the greenback is on track to extend its year-to-date retreat of more than 8%.
President Trump's public questioning of the Fed's credibility and the reliability of official data is further undercutting the dollar's allure. Recent policy moves by the U.S. administration are also sowing doubts over the currency's long-term standing, eroding its safe-haven premium and paving the way for a persistent risk discount.
Technical Analysis
After three consecutive down-days, the Dollar Index has attempted a modest rebound, trading near 98.00 in European hours on Friday.
On the daily chart, the mild bearish momentum remains intact, with the RSI continuing to track lower. During this period, downside risks dominate. The support is 97.60, followed by 97.10. And the Resistances are 98.40 (MA21), 98.80 (MA100), and 99.60.
Thursday's options pricing shows investors pricing in a modest depreciation over the next three to six months. The index broke below its MA100 in early March and has remained pressured ever since. Two failed attempts to reclaim the average this month have reinforced 98.80 as a key cap.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 98.00
Target Price: 95.10
Stop Loss: 99.98
Valid Until: September 13, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 97.60/97.10/96.38
Resistance: 98.40/98.80/99.60
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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