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Overbought Conditions Suggest Deeper Correction for EURUSD
Summary:
The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart are located at 1.1219 and 1.0885, respectively, providing ample room for a more significant retracement.
Trading
1.16708
ENTRY
1.15000
TGT
1.18200
SL
-- -- --
0
Point
Flat
1.15000
TGT
CLOSING
1.16708
ENTRY
1.18200
SL
In the week ending July 6, initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 5,000 to 227,000, defying market expectations for an increase to 235,000. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading in nearly two months, providing further evidence that the U.S. labor market remains resilient despite ongoing concerns over high interest rates and trade-related uncertainties.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently commented on the job market’s fragility, warning that any increase in layoffs could quickly drive the unemployment rate higher. This highlights the Fed's cautious approach as they continue to assess the impact of inflation and employment data, delaying any major policy actions for now.
Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem expressed optimism about the economy, noting that the labor market is nearly at full employment. However, he also cautioned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly due to the ongoing effects of tariffs, which have yet to fully manifest. A weaker U.S. dollar could exacerbate these inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar will feature remarks from key Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Across the Atlantic, UK market participants will focus on GDP and industrial production data, as well as manufacturing figures, which could significantly influence market sentiment.
On the trade front, with reciprocal tariffs delayed until August 1, investors are betting that the Trump administration may delay or suspend both the tariff packages initially announced in April and new tariffs targeting specific countries and sectors. Many market participants remain hopeful that the majority of Trump’s tariff threats will not materialize, and trader confidence is building as inflationary pressures from these tariffs remain subdued.
The U.S. and the European Union are reportedly moving closer to an agreement, with a potential framework deal set to be finalized before the August 1 deadline. European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič indicated that significant progress had been made, with a deal possibly including a base tariff of around 10% but with exceptions for key products such as Airbus aircraft. Although the U.S. has postponed its initial deadline, President Trump has warned that there will be no further delays and has begun sending formal tariff notices to other countries, increasing pressure on EU negotiators.
Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU’s "unwavering" efforts to secure an "in-principle" agreement that would provide stability to businesses, acknowledging that tariffs are a "lose-lose" scenario. However, divisions within the EU persist, with Germany pushing for a quick agreement to protect its automobile exports, while countries like France, Spain, Italy, and Denmark prefer a more comprehensive and balanced trade framework.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. However, market participants still believe the ECB may cut rates at least once more before the end of the year, as inflation remains close to target and economic growth across the Eurozone continues to show signs of fragility.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently experiencing a strong bullish momentum and has recently formed a rising wedge pattern, peaking at a local high of 1.1838 on July 1. Since then, the price has rejected these levels, printing strong bearish candles and closing below the 9-period moving average. This could confirm the onset of a deeper correction toward the 1.1500 level. The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart are located at 1.1219 and 1.0885, respectively, providing ample room for a more significant retracement.
The RSI reached a high of 75.9, entering well into overbought territory, signaling that bullish momentum may be losing steam. This could lead EUR/USD to correct toward the lower boundary of the rising wedge. If the price breaks below this level with strength, the correction could extend further. However, if the price manages to break the recent local high and close above it decisively, the bullish trend could resume.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.1672
Target price: 1.1500
Stop loss: 1.1820
Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00
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LOSS -15106 Points
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