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Trendline Support Could Spark a New Bullish Surge in GBPUSD
Summary:
This area has previously acted as a support level, serving as a springboard for upward momentum.
PENDING
1.35200
ENTRY
1.37500
TGT
1.34500
SL
1.35453 -0.00136 -0.10%
--
Point
PENDING
1.34500
SL
CLOSING
1.35200
ENTRY
1.37500
TGT
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently commented on the current state of the U.S. job market, indicating that any uptick in layoffs could quickly push the unemployment rate higher, suggesting a more fragile labor market than some had anticipated. This underlines the Fed’s cautious stance as they continue to assess inflation and employment data, holding off on any major policy decisions for the time being.
Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem expressed more optimism about the U.S. economy, noting that the labor market is near full employment. However, he also warned that inflation risks are tilted to the upside, particularly due to the lingering effects of tariffs, which have yet to fully materialize. A weaker U.S. dollar could contribute to these inflationary pressures in the months ahead.
Looking ahead, the economic agenda will feature remarks from key Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. In the UK, market participants will be closely monitoring GDP and industrial production data, as well as manufacturing figures, which could impact market sentiment.
On the trade front, with reciprocal tariffs delayed until August 1, investors are betting that the Trump administration may delay or further suspend both the tariff packages announced earlier in April and new tariffs targeting specific countries and sectors. Markets remain hopeful that many of Trump’s tariff threats will not come to fruition, and traders’ confidence is growing as inflationary pressures from these tariffs have been relatively muted.
UK GDP data for May is expected to show a weak recovery, with limited impact on market sentiment, as the numbers are forecast to remain below expectations. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of UK public finances, citing rising state pension costs and growing climate-related demands.
The Bank of England (BoE) recently highlighted the challenges facing global financial stability, noting geopolitical tensions, fragmented trade flows, and rising sovereign debt pressures. While UK banks remain well-capitalized, the BoE warned that global financial conditions are becoming more challenging, with asset valuations remaining elevated and susceptible to sharp corrections.
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD recently underwent a bearish pullback after a strong bullish move that peaked at 1.3790 on July 1. Since then, the price has retraced to a local low of 1.3527, near the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. This area has previously acted as a support level, serving as a springboard for upward momentum. If this pattern repeats itself, we could see a new bullish move unfold. Should the price reject this zone, another leg higher could follow, targeting previous highs.
Additionally, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages have closely followed the upward trendline, making this area a key support region. As the price approaches these levels once again, it may attract buyers looking for a potential reversal. The RSI has recently dipped to 38, nearing oversold territory, suggesting that downward pressure may be waning. While a further pullback to the trendline is possible, this could lead to a bullish rejection, making long positions favorable from this zone.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.3520
Target price: 1.3750
Stop loss: 1.3450
Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00
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