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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Silver Breaks Through Key Level of 40! Next Target 50?
Summary:
The current rally is driven by a dual resonance of interest rates and the U.S. dollar. On one hand, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the second half of this year, with nearly a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate at the September meeting. This expectation has depressed the risk-free yield curve, enhancing the relative appeal of holding non-yielding assets.
CLOSED
40.860
ENTRY
39.800
TGT
41.500
SL
40.980 +0.329 +0.81%
173
Points
Loss
39.800
TGT
41.033
CLOSING
40.860
ENTRY
41.500
SL
Fundamentals
The current rally is driven by a dual resonance of interest rates and the U.S. dollar. On one hand, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the second half of this year, with nearly a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate at the September meeting. This outlook pushes down the risk-free yield curve, making non-interest-bearing assets, like silver, more attractive. On the other hand, the weakness in the U.S. dollar provides passive support for dollar-denominated precious metals. Moreover, the uncertainty at the policy level is also growing. Debates over the independence of the Federal Reserve intensify, with public calls from the White House for lower interest rates and remarks regarding the potential departure of FOMC member Lisa Cook. These developments amplify speculation about future monetary policy paths. Meanwhile, trade uncertainties, recurring geopolitical tensions, and continued inflows into gold and silver ETFs are all driving up demand for precious metals as defensive portfolio assets.
The U.S. Treasury market becomes increasingly sensitive to legal and political developments. The yield on the 30-year bond briefly breached 5% on Tuesday before retreating to 4.936% on Wednesday, reacting to a federal appeals court ruling that deemed most of former President Trump's import tariffs illegal. This ruling opens the door to billions in potential refunds and introduces new fiscal uncertainty. The U.S. dollar has fallen over 9% year-to-date and continues to weaken amid escalating political and trade tensions. For silver, a weaker dollar enhances its appeal to foreign buyers and further supports price gains.
Technical Analysis
Based on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with moving averages trending higher. The price is moving strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band, and the MACD remains in a golden cross without signs of weakening. The RSI stands at 69, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The next resistance level is the psychological barrier of 50. It's worth noting that after breaking out of the triangular consolidation, silver did not retest the upper edge of the triangle. If a pullback occurs, traders should watch whether the upper edge of the triangle holds. If it doesn't break, the uptrend may continue; otherwise, silver could return to the consolidation range. Regarding the 15-minute chart, the price briefly dipped below the Bollinger Lower Band before quickly rebounding to the Bollinger Middle Band. Holding above the Bollinger Middle Band or the 50-period EMA will boost the likelihood of another push toward 41 or even 50. However, failure to hold could lead to a decline toward the Bollinger Lower Band and previous lows around 40.5 and 40.1. Therefore, it is better to sell for now and buy later.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 40.86
Target price: 39.8
Stop loss: 41.5
Support: 40.5/40/39.7
Resistance: 41.5/45/50
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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20 years of trading experience, specializing in naked price action analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Chan Theory. Has conducted in-depth research on forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Achieved a tenfold profit during the 2005 bull market and doubled profits within one month of entering the crypto market in 2015. Adheres to the trading philosophy: "Trend is king; focus on the big picture, act on
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PROFIT +145 Points
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