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Policy Interventions and Surging Deficit Weigh on Dollar’s Medium-Term Outlook
Summary:
The dollar is under pressure amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence and ballooning U.S. fiscal deficits. While a technical rebound has emerged, resistance remains formidable, with analysts projecting further downside.
Trading
96.500
ENTRY
100.200
TGT
94.600
SL
96.350 -0.010 -0.01%
0
Point
Flat
94.600
SL
CLOSING
96.500
ENTRY
100.200
TGT
Fundamentals
The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) rebounded modestly from three-year lows on Monday but remains below the 97.50 threshold, reflecting persistent weakness. The index has shed nearly 12% from its 2025 peak, marking its lowest level since 2022. Morgan Stanley strategists forecast an additional 9% decline, citing eroding confidence in Fed autonomy and escalating sovereign debt risks.
Reports indicate former President Trump is evaluating candidates to replace Fed Chair Powell, whose term expires in 2026. Leading contenders include Scott Bessent, Kevin Hassett, and Kevin Warsh. In a Fox News interview, Trump advocated for interest rates to fall to 1–2%, signaling potential political pressure on monetary policy.
Market Observations: Analysts warn that diminished policy independence and record deficit spending will likely anchor the dollar in a protracted downtrend. Trump’s proposed “big, beautiful” tax-cut bill, advancing in the Senate, could add $3–4 trillion to U.S. debt over the next decade. This has reignited concerns about fiscal sustainability, further clouding the dollar’s outlook.
Technical Analysis
From the daily chart perspective, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains entrenched in a descending channel that has persisted since April 2024, with upside momentum capped and the broader bearish structure intact. The recent tepid rebound has been consistently constrained by structural resistance between 97.60–98.00, limiting further upside potential.
Momentum Analysis: The MACD indicator remains weak below the zero line, with the signal line flattening slightly, indicating that bearish momentum has yet to intensify but the overall structure remains tilted to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers between 40-45, signaling neither oversold conditions nor sufficient rebound strength, reinforcing the bearish bias.
The USDX is consolidating near 97.19 in a fragile manner, with its broader downtrend still intact. Despite a modest short-term rebound, the greenback remains capped below multiple resistance levels from a technical perspective.
Market sentiment stays bearish, suggesting a continued preference for short positions. A decisive break below the critical support at 96.80 could trigger further downside, though a notable rebound is likely near the 96.20 zone.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 96.50
Target Price: 100.20
Stop Loss: 94.60
Valid Until: July 15, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 96.97/96.52/96.26
Resistance: 97.54/98.20/99.01
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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