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Safe-Haven Demand Ebb Drags Gold Lower, Yet Medium- and Long-Term Upside Intact
Summary:
Gold slid to $2,427 per ounce on Monday, testing its monthly low, as easing geopolitical tensions and rising optimism over global trade curbed safe-haven flows. Despite the near-term correction, we retain a constructive view on gold’s medium- and longer-term trajectory.
PENDING
3270.00
ENTRY
3393.00
TGT
3230.00
SL
3331.88 +29.10 +0.88%
--
Point
PENDING
3230.00
SL
CLOSING
3270.00
ENTRY
3393.00
TGT
Fundamentals
Gold prices rebounded in a corrective move on Tuesday after touching a low of $3,247 per ounce in the previous session, as fragile but still-holding ceasefire agreements in the Middle East eased fears of renewed regional conflict escalation. Meanwhile, mounting optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade deal—highlighted by President Donald Trump’s positive signals last week—dented safe-haven demand, weighing on the precious metal.
Although gold has retreated modestly from record highs amid growing expectations that the most acute phase of the trade war may be nearing its end, we remain constructive on its long-term value proposition.
YTD in 2025, gold has emerged as the top performer among global asset classes. Central bank buying and ETF inflows have been key drivers, with European Central Bank data showing gold has surpassed the euro to become the world’s second-largest reserve asset after the U.S. dollar.
We believe a confluence of factors—including declining real rates, a weaker dollar, elevated geopolitical risk premiums, and a structural shift toward institutional accumulation—will continue to underpin gold prices. For instance, World Gold Council data reveals that central banks have purchased an average of over 1,000 tons annually in the past three years—more than double the decade-long average—underscoring the metal’s enduring appeal as a strategic reserve asset.
Technical Analysis
Gold is navigating a transitional regime where traditional correlations are being stress-tested. The interplay of easing geopolitical risk, sustained growth optimism, and expectations of prolonged monetary easing has created a complex backdrop for investors.
Price action hinges on whether risk-on sentiment persists or if renewed concerns over sticky inflation, geopolitical flare-ups, or economic uncertainty rekindle safe-haven bids. For now, gold is in a wait-and-see mode. The next decisive move will reflect which narrative ultimately dominates broader market sentiment. Based on momentum dynamics, we favor a long bias for July, with a tactical entry window on dips.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 3270
Target Price: 3393
Stop Loss: 3230
Valid Until: July 15, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 3258/3247/3232
Resistance: 3247/3301/3321
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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