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Test of Bullish Resilience Can't Mask June's Bearish Curse
Summary:
Following sharp declines on Monday and Tuesday, gold prices showed notable resilience mid-week. While investor sentiment shifted from geopolitical tensions to Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, gold prices managed to hold steady.
CLOSED
3315.20
ENTRY
3259.00
TGT
3398.00
SL
3332.73 +29.95 +0.91%
5620
Points
Profit
3259.00
TGT
3258.66
CLOSING
3315.20
ENTRY
3398.00
SL
Fundamentals
Gold prices attracted buying interest for a second consecutive day on Thursday, maintaining upward momentum during the European session. Sustained US Dollar selling momentum provided underlying support.
The divergence between falling safe-haven demand and sustained buying interest reflects a significant shift in market dynamics. Gold investors are increasingly positioning around monetary policy expectations rather than purely crisis-driven demand. This marks a broader trend toward more nuanced risk assessments and strategic asset allocations.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his second day of testimony before Congress, defended the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rates, citing considerable uncertainty regarding the inflationary effects of tariffs. Powell acknowledged that tariff-driven price increases might prove transitory, but emphasized that the Fed must prepare for the possibility of more persistent inflation. “As the people who are supposed to keep stable prices, we need to manage that risk. That's all we're doing.” he said.
Powell stressed that the Fed is navigating largely uncharted territory, warning that the potential scale of new tariffs far exceeds those implemented during Trump’s first term — and that those earlier actions occurred in a low-inflation environment. “There is not a modern precedent.” he cautioned, advising against premature policy adjustments in the absence of clearer economic signals. On tariff-related inflation, Powell remarked: “If it comes in quickly and it is over and done then yes, very likely it is a one-time thing.” However, if the Fed misjudges the situation, “People will pay the cost for a long time.”
Investors appear to bet that political pressure, economic uncertainty, and Fed caution will ultimately favor looser policy. This suggests gold’s role as an inflation hedge and currency debasement protection remains attractive even with diminished traditional safe-haven demand.
Technical Analysis
Turning to price action: gold saw renewed buying interest on Thursday. However, a key bearish trendline is forming, with resistance near the $3360 level. A decisive break above this resistance could open further upside potential. The next major hurdle is around $3378, and beyond that, prices could revisit the $3400 handle.
Nonetheless, given gold’s historically poor performance in the month of June, upside momentum is likely to face significant headwinds. The path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 3358
Target Price: 3259
Stop Loss: 3398
Valid Until: July 11, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 3329/3323/3295
Resistance Levels: 3350/3356/3360
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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