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A Potential Downside Move Develops From Triangular Resistance
Summary:
This resistance zone also aligns with a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing the potential for a bearish rejection.
CLOSED
1.36900
ENTRY
1.35800
TGT
1.37300
SL
1.36971 +0.00441 +0.32%
83
Points
Profit
1.35800
TGT
1.36817
CLOSING
1.36900
ENTRY
1.37300
SL
In its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, the New York Federal Reserve reported that one-year inflation expectations declined to 3.0% in June, down from 3.2% in May. Meanwhile, the three-year inflation outlook remained steady at 3.0%, and the five-year expectation was unchanged at 2.6%.
While the inflation outlook moderated, expectations for price increases in sectors such as rent, gasoline, healthcare, and higher education accelerated in June. Housing price expectations also held firm at 3.0%, underscoring a somewhat mixed inflation landscape.
At the same time, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC he expects 15–20 more tariff-related letters to be issued in the coming days. Investor sentiment remained cautious as President Trump threatened to expand tariffs to include pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and copper—industries critical to global supply chains.
On Monday night, the White House confirmed that President Trump signed an executive order delaying the implementation of newly announced tariffs from July to August 1. The 25% levies—initially targeted at goods from Japan and South Korea—will also extend to imports from Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia. South Africa faces a 30% tariff, while Laos and Myanmar are hit with 40% duties. Additional affected nations include Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), and both Thailand and Cambodia (36%).
Analysts continue to view the unpredictability of U.S. trade and fiscal policies as a significant factor behind the U.S. dollar's volatile performance. A Reuters poll published on July 2 revealed that 37% of foreign exchange strategists consider tariff negotiations a major drag on the greenback, alongside persistent concerns over debt levels and the uncertain interest rate trajectory.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that monetary policy will remain data-dependent. Although he has not ruled out a rate cut in July, the likelihood of action this month remains low. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in just a 4.7% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in July, down from 20.7% last week. The focus has now shifted to September, with a 62.8% chance of easing—though that has also slipped from 73.2%.
Elsewhere, Canada remains outside the scope of Washington’s global tariff push, according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s office on Monday. However, Canadian exports are still impacted by targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and fentanyl-related trade. While a bilateral agreement with the U.S. is expected by July 21, these measures continue to weigh on the Canadian dollar, particularly in the short term.
In addition, the Canadian dollar has come under renewed pressure following a drop in crude oil prices. OPEC+ surprised markets by agreeing to a larger-than-anticipated production increase for August, dragging crude prices lower. Given that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States, falling energy prices tend to exert downward pressure on the Loonie.
Technical Analysis
USD/CAD recently advanced, but bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion as the pair approaches the confluence of the 100- and 200-period moving averages, located at 1.3661 and 1.3688 respectively. This resistance zone also aligns with a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing the potential for a bearish rejection.
If the pair is turned away once more from this area, a corrective move lower could unfold, targeting the lower boundary of a triangle pattern—an area that has previously acted as support and may do so again during a potential retracement.
The RSI currently sits near 55, still within neutral territory, suggesting a retest of the upper triangle boundary remains a possibility before any decisive move lower. A clear rejection from the resistance zone would provide confirmation for short setups. However, a strong breakout above the descending trendline could invalidate the bearish scenario and open the door for further upside.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 1.3690
Target price: 1.3580
Stop loss: 1.3730
Validity: Jul 18, 2025 15:00:00
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