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Bearish Momentum Could Resume From Resistance
Summary:
This latest rejection raises the prospect of renewed bearish momentum, as the pair appears to be consolidating within a range between 145.86 and 148.80.
CLOSED
148.062
ENTRY
146.600
TGT
149.200
SL
-- -- --
831
Points
Profit
146.600
TGT
147.231
CLOSING
148.062
ENTRY
149.200
SL
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that job openings stood at 7.18 million on the final business day of July. This figure came in below both the previous month’s revised reading of 7.35 million (down from 7.43 million) and market expectations of 7.4 million. More importantly, it marked the lowest level of job openings reported since September 2024, highlighting a gradual cooling in labor demand.
Adding to the cautious sentiment, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that Factory Orders fell by 1.3% month-over-month in July. While slightly better than the consensus forecast of a 1.4% decline, the release reinforced concerns over persistent weakness within the manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile, Stephen Miran, nominated by President Donald Trump to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, pledged that if confirmed, he would maintain the Fed’s political independence. Miran emphasized that his policy stance would be based strictly on “his analysis,” although his past publications have occasionally raised questions. Interestingly, he also mischaracterized the Fed’s mandate during his testimony, suggesting its “main job” was to prevent depressions and inflation, despite the institution’s dual mandate to ensure price stability and support maximum employment.
Elsewhere, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic both leaned slightly hawkish in recent remarks, prioritizing price stability. However, they acknowledged signs of a softening labor market, with Bostic noting that he expects only one 25-basis-point rate cut this year. Earlier, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also stressed that the Fed remains firmly focused on its mandate, pointing out that the current restrictive stance is appropriate. In contrast, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for easing rates at the September meeting, keeping the debate among policymakers alive.
Bond markets reflected this cautious backdrop. U.S. Treasury yields extended their decline, with the 10-year note slipping more than five basis points to 4.211%. Real yields, which adjust for inflation expectations, also dropped by around 5.5 basis points to 1.803%.
On the other hand, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) saw significant selling, with 30-year yields climbing to historic highs near 3.29% amid investor concerns over government debt sustainability. While the turbulence in global bond markets has eased somewhat since Tuesday, elevated yields remain a headwind for the Japanese yen and a pressing concern for the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Similar moves earlier this year prompted the central bank to step aside and pause its tightening cycle. Reports indicate that BoJ Governor Ueda met with Prime Minister Ishiba, though post-meeting comments provided little clarity on policy intentions.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY faced rejection after testing resistance at 148.81, a level that has repeatedly triggered downside moves in recent sessions. This latest rejection raises the prospect of renewed bearish momentum, as the pair appears to be consolidating within a range between 145.86 and 148.80. If this pattern persists, a fresh downswing may be underway. The 100- and 200-period moving averages, currently aligned near 147.54 and 147.69, sit just below spot levels; a decisive close beneath these supports could accelerate the decline toward 146.60.
At the same time, the RSI recently touched 72 as USDJPY tested resistance, signaling overbought conditions that increase the likelihood of a corrective pullback. On the flip side, a sustained breakout above the 148.81 barrier could shift sentiment back in favor of the bulls, paving the way for another test of the psychological 150.00 level.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 148.08
Target price: 146.60
Stop loss: 149.20
Validity: Sep 12, 2025 15:00:00
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