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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Both Fundamental and Momentum Factors Necessitate Significant Effort
Summary:
A positive catalyst for crude oil demand hinges on developments regarding tariffs. Bulls in the oil market still face a significant challenge in reversing the prevailing trend.
PENDING
57.200
ENTRY
64.750
TGT
54.700
SL
60.551 +0.661 +1.10%
--
Point
PENDING
54.700
SL
CLOSING
57.200
ENTRY
64.750
TGT
Fundamentals
WTI crude oil prices have been on a sustained rally over the past few trading sessions, currently trading at US$58.90, having rebounded from lows near US$56.00 per barrel in late April. The price action appears to be forming a potential double-bottom pattern and is currently testing a key resistance level near US$60.00.
The rise in WTI prices has been fueled by developments in the tariff trade negotiations. While these negotiations are likely to improve sentiment in the oil market, significant progress on tariff reductions is needed to bolster the demand outlook.
Meanwhile, the escalation of conflict between nuclear-armed states India and Pakistan, with Pakistan claiming to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, has also provided support for oil prices.
Furthermore, the unexpected production increase plan by OPEC+ at the beginning of this month triggered a short-term shock in the oil market. The unexpected aspect of this meeting was not only the exceeding of production increase expectations, but also the shift in OPEC+'s stance on supporting oil prices since 2022 and concerns about subsequent diplomatic negotiations.
We believe that this unexpected production increase is mainly related to the desire of Saudi Arabia and other leading countries to maintain the organization's discipline and the upcoming U.S.-Saudi diplomatic activities. Currently, the global crude oil supply and demand structure is gradually reversing and showing a "loose balance" state. If OPEC further increases production, it will gradually show a "supply exceeding demand" phenomenon, and the oil market may still face pressure in the future.
Overall, under the disturbance of supply and risk events, international oil prices may still be weak and volatile. If the expectation of weakening macroeconomic readings under tariff disturbances is realized, it will put further downward pressure on oil prices.
Technical Analysis
The recent rally in WTI crude emerged following a significant decline from the April highs near US$64.00, with bulls now attempting to recoup some losses. However, the 200-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, suggesting that the long-term bearish bias may still be in play. The considerable gap between these indicators implies that substantial effort is required from the bulls to fully reverse the trend.
The stochastic oscillator is currently hovering near overbought territory, potentially signaling resistance to the current recovery or the need for a brief consolidation before further gains. Despite this, the stochastic has not yet presented a clear bearish divergence or a definitive downward turn, indicating that buying momentum persists for now.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has entered bullish territory above 60, with room to advance before reaching extreme overbought conditions. This suggests further upside potential if buyers maintain control.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 57.20
Target Price: 64.75
Stop Loss: 54.70
Valid Until: May 22, 2025 23:55:00
Support: 58.59, 57.46, 56.17
Resistance: 59.52, 60.13, 61.84
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