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Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Summary:
A day after the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady, the Bank of England (BOE) cut its benchmark rate, highlighting a growing divergence between the Fed and other global central banks in their responses to economic challenges, including those posed by Trump's tariffs.
PENDING
192.000
ENTRY
196.600
TGT
189.800
SL
193.390 +0.174 +0.09%
--
Point
PENDING
189.800
SL
CLOSING
192.000
ENTRY
196.600
TGT
Fundamentals
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to reduce the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, in line with market expectations. However, the decision revealed a rare three-way split among policymakers.
Five members supported the 25 basis point cut, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. Conversely, Catherine L. Mann and Huw Pill argued for maintaining the rate at 4.5%.
In an accompanying statement, the Bank reiterated that a "gradual and careful approach" to unwinding monetary tightening remains appropriate.
While acknowledging progress on disinflation, the MPC emphasized the need to keep policy "restrictive for as long as necessary" to ensure that inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.
The Bank's latest Monetary Policy Report forecasts that CPI inflation will rise to 3.5% in the third quarter of 2025 before falling back to 2% in the medium term.
However, policymakers outlined two alternative scenarios fraught with risks. The first scenario envisions a drop in demand, assuming heightened uncertainty suppresses domestic spending and inflationary pressures dissipate more quickly. In this case, the economy would face a larger output gap, with inflation 0.3% lower than the baseline over three years.
Conversely, the second scenario projects persistently higher inflation, driven by second-round effects on wages and prices from recent increases in headline inflation, compounded by weak productivity growth. In this scenario, while inflation would have a smaller impact on economic growth, it would remain 0.4% above the baseline throughout the forecast period.
Technical Analysis
On Thursday, the GBPJPY edged higher, trading around 192.77, with bulls maintaining control. The pair continues to find support from a series of ascending short-term moving averages, which further reinforces its overall bullish structure. However, mixed signals from some momentum indicators may limit its short-term upside potential.
From a technical perspective, as long as the support level at 189.97 holds, GBPJPY is expected to continue its upward trend. A breakout above 193.72 would extend the rally that began at 184.35, targeting the resistance level at 195.95.
Conversely, a breakdown below the 189.97 support level would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 192.00
Target Price: 196.60
Stop Loss: 189.80
Valid Until: May 23, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 191.78/190.28/189.34
Resistance: 193.72/195.41/196.46
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