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Oil Prices Rebound on Trade Optimism
Summary:
WTI crude oil prices are hovering around $60.00 per barrel, with easing trade tensions providing an upside potential.
Trading
60.857
ENTRY
70.540
TGT
56.700
SL
60.623 +0.733 +1.22%
0
Point
Flat
56.700
SL
CLOSING
60.857
ENTRY
70.540
TGT
Fundamentals
The resurgence of optimism surrounding global trade negotiations has bolstered oil prices, which are on track for a weekly gain of over 3%. The recent announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, the first such deal with a major trading partner since the imposition of broad tariffs by the Trump administration, has significantly eased trade tensions.
This development has not only enhanced investors' confidence but also provided a robust tailwind for crude oil prices.
Furthermore, China and the U.S., after a prolonged stalemate in the trade war, are set to commence trade negotiations in Switzerland this weekend. The primary objective of these talks is to reach a consensus on reducing the currently excessive tariffs, which have effectively imposed a de facto trade embargo on most goods. Given the increasing economic pressure on both sides, we anticipate that an agreement to lower tariffs to a more reasonable range will be reached in the near term.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil prices continued to climb on Friday, trading near $60.80 per barrel, following a nearly 4% increase in the previous trading session. The easing of trade tensions among major oil-consuming countries and the announcement of a "breakthrough" trade agreement between the UK and the U.S. have been the primary catalysts for the recent price surge.
Technically, WTI crude oil prices have broken through the descending triangle resistance that has been constraining their movement since early April. Currently, the commodity is trading above $60.04 per barrel, showing a bullish momentum after rebounding from recent lows. Meanwhile, the formation of a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the one-hour time frame further confirms that an upward trend may be taking shape.
From a moving average perspective, the MA100 has crossed below the MA200, which typically signals a bearish crossover. However, the current price is approaching a dynamic turning point of the MA100, and a breakout to the upside could be an early bullish signal.
The stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought area, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening. The indicator has been on an upward trajectory since early May, confirming the recent upward trend in prices. However, as it nears the 80 level, it may signal that the market's upward momentum could weaken, and traders should remain cautious.
The relative strength index (RSI) is also on an upward trend and still has room to rise before reaching the overbought area, indicating that the upward momentum may continue in the short term. The RSI is currently hovering around 50, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures.
If crude oil prices successfully break through and hold above the top of the descending triangle, we may see oil prices rise towards the resistance level of $64.00 per barrel. Conversely, if the breakout fails, it could trigger a pullback to test the support level of $55.27 per barrel.
Despite OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production by 411,000 b/d in June, investors should still keep a close eye on geopolitical and trade dynamics, as positive news could revitalize the commodity's stronger demand outlook.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 60.80
Target Price: 70.54
Stop Loss: 56.70
Valid Until: May 24, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 59.83/57.15/56.19
Resistance: 61.83/63.47/64.71
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