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Bulls Regain Their Stance, but Upside Likely Capped
Summary:
ETH reclaims key fibonacci support post-flash-crash, but technical setup remains bearish-biased.
Trading
4038.80
ENTRY
4500.00
TGT
3500.00
SL
3964.26 -40.03 -1.00%
0
Point
Flat
3500.00
SL
CLOSING
4038.80
ENTRY
4500.00
TGT
Fundamentals
On the 4-hour chart, ETH is changing hands at around $4,052, having regained the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing-low ($3,909) after a brief violation. The sharp bounce from sub-$3,500 levels underscores aggressive bid interest inside the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci cluster, yet the overall structure still lacks a higher-high sequence, leaving the short-term trend vulnerable.
Meanwhile, despite the short-term uncertainty introduced by recent ETH price swings, the overall structure signals a bullish revival within the medium-term uptrend. The MA50 currently sits at $4,325, acting as a dynamic resistance, while the MA200 near $3,162 provides a robust long-term support base. With the MA50 still trading above the MA200, the trend remains constructive even as Ethereum probes key resistance.
However, with the RSI printing 43.95, the market is rotating out of mild oversold territory—a reading that historically flags the onset of a recovery leg and is typically accompanied by supportive price action.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has ticked back to +0.15, signaling renewed inflows after a brief spell of distribution. A positive CMF denotes strengthening aggregate buying pressure, in line with spot ETH's ability to hold ground above the $4,000 handle.
On the ETH-spot-ETF front, Thursday saw a measured inflow of $238m, snapping a three-session streak of outflows.
Technical Analysis
After a volatile phase that saw ETH probe support below $3,500, Ethereum has now stabilized. With bulls regaining conviction, the first upside target sits at $4,500. A sustained bid could reopen the $4,600–$4,900 supply zone, offering over 15% upside from the current print. A daily close back above the MA50 would validate continuation of the broader bullish structure.
Yet the recent bounce originated from a technical level that was already violated, capping the move's reach in the short term. Simultaneously, a bearish cross is about to trigger on the weekly timeframe—the last two occurrences preceded draw-downs of 43% and 61%, flagging a non-trivial probability of deeper retracement.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 3970
Target Price: 4500
Stop Loss: 3500
Valid Until: October 31, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 3893/3647/3435
Resistance: 4089/4217/4295
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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LOSS -5847 Points
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