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Critical Employment Reports Stir the Market; Can Gold Bulls Set Sail Again?
Summary:
Gold prices have risen for a second consecutive day, buoyed by investor optimism that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts later this year and as investors continue to monitor US trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.
PENDING
3386.00
ENTRY
3272.00
TGT
3425.00
SL
3332.38 -6.37 -0.19%
--
Point
PENDING
3272.00
TGT
CLOSING
3386.00
ENTRY
3425.00
SL
Fundamentals
After a 1% increase on Monday, gold prices were in a buying mode on Tuesday, trading above $3,350 during the European session, as traders anticipated a higher likelihood of at least two US rate cuts in 2025.
The uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of Trump's tariff agenda and investors' rush to exit US assets have led to a nearly 11% decline in the US Dollar Index in the first six months of this year, the worst performance since 1973.
Supported by rising trade and geopolitical risks, gold prices have risen by about 25% this year and are currently less than $200 away from the record high set in April. The employment report due on Thursday could also act as a catalyst for the decline in US Treasury yields, a situation typically favorable for gold.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices received buying support on Monday from the one-month low of $3,247, boosted by a weaker US dollar and some short-sellers taking profits after a 5% drop in gold prices over the past two weeks. The strong buying was so robust that it didn't even wait until Monday's close, preventing the bearish monthly close in June that we had anticipated, indicating that the market remains strong.
However, the current buying action is merely a retreat back to the center of the trading range, and we expect the adjustment to continue. We anticipate that range-bound trading will persist until the next range opens.
Within the range, in a bullish scenario, the upside potential is limited after the strong upward movement on Monday and Tuesday, with a short-term target in the $3,286 - $3,400 range.
In a bearish scenario, if the recovery repeatedly fails to break through the $3,400 range, downside risks are still expected to persist, and short-sellers are likely to push the price back towards the recent bottom of $3,270.
As the market awaits the release of key US labor reports this week (JOLTS/ADP/NFP), short-term action may remain relatively calm, with these reports expected to provide the latest updates on the state of the US labor department and subsequently influence the Federal Reserve's rate decisions.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 3368/3386
Target Price: 3272
Stop Loss: 3425
Deadline: July 16, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 3310/3295/3283
Resistance: 3368/3382/3387
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Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.
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