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Decline May Not Be Over, Await Secondary Test of the Low
Summary:
Recent sharp falls in gold prices were triggered by Trump's nomination of Warsh as Fed Chair. Technical analysis suggests the downtrend may continue.
CLOSED
4660.00
ENTRY
4320.00
TGT
4810.00
SL
4919.59 +260.99 +5.60%
15000
Points
Loss
4320.00
TGT
4810.10
CLOSING
4660.00
ENTRY
4810.00
SL
Fundamentals
Last week, Trump's nomination of Warsh sparked market concerns that he could steer monetary policy in a more hawkish direction or place greater emphasis on curbing inflation. Investors quickly repriced uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future and interest-rate trajectory, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields. This raised the opportunity cost of holding gold and pressured its price. Reports indicate that following the announcement, both the dollar and yields rose significantly, serving as key direct factors weighing on precious metals. In addition, this adjustment was not driven solely by fundamental repricing: structural factors amplified the decline. After gold hit historic highs, the market had accumulated substantial leveraged positions and ETF exposure. When policy risks shifted expectations and margin requirements were raised, forced liquidations and margin-driven selling quickly magnified the downward move, creating a self-reinforcing cascade. Media and exchange reports noted that the recent plunge coincided with higher futures margins and reduced liquidity on some exchanges, further exacerbating the drop.
Technical Analysis
Based on the daily chart, gold plunged for three consecutive sessions to the $4400 level, which coincides with support from the 60-day moving average, forming a resonance of support that temporarily weakened short-term bearish momentum. However, this does not signal the end of the downtrend. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to enter oversold territory, further suggesting that the decline may continue.
Currently, gold has found brief support at $4400 and may stage a short-term rebound to test resistance in the $4680–$4780 zone. If it fails to break above this resistance and weakens again, gold could retest the $4400 support and potentially fall toward the $4780 area. Conversely, if gold breaks and holds above $4780, it could open the way for an advance toward $5000.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 4660.00
Target price: 4320.00
Stop loss: 4810.00
Valid Until: February 16, 2026, 23:00:00
Support: 4400.00/4274.00
Resistance: 4680.00/4780.00
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