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EUR/JPY Climbs to Three-Week High as Yen Weakness Overshadows Euro Headwinds
Summary:
The euro extended its winning streak against the yen for a fourth straight day, rising to a three-week high near ¥172.80 in Asia on Tuesday.
Trading
172.951
ENTRY
175.200
TGT
172.000
SL
172.944 +0.240 +0.14%
0
Point
Flat
172.000
SL
CLOSING
172.951
ENTRY
175.200
TGT
The euro strengthened further against the Japanese yen in Tuesday’s Asian session, pushing EUR/JPY to a fresh three-week high around the 172.75–172.80 zone. This marks the fourth consecutive day of gains for the cross, underscoring persistent pressure on the yen despite broader challenges facing the euro.
The yen’s decline comes amid a lack of clarity over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next policy move. While policymakers have signaled a willingness to continue along a normalization path after decades of ultra-loose settings, markets remain unconvinced that the central bank is ready to deliver another rate hike in the near term. In the meantime, improving sentiment across Asian equity markets has reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets, leaving the yen vulnerable to sustained selling pressure.
On the other side of the trade, the euro has not been immune to headwinds. A modest rebound in the U.S. dollar has weighed on the single currency in recent sessions. However, the euro’s downside risks appear limited by diminishing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates soon. That shift in sentiment was sparked by last week’s higher-than-expected German inflation data, which suggested price pressures in Europe’s largest economy remain sticky.
Investors will now turn their focus to the preliminary Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August, due later today. A stronger reading could bolster the case for the ECB to hold steady for longer, offering the euro some support. Conversely, any downside surprise would likely reinforce the narrative that eurozone policymakers are more dovish compared to their U.S. and Japanese counterparts.
This policy divergence is at the heart of EUR/JPY’s recent moves. The growing perception that the BoJ is slowly normalizing while the ECB is leaning toward caution has created an unusual tension: traders are reluctant to aggressively short the yen given the BoJ’s shift in stance, but euro strength remains underpinned by sticky inflation dynamics. For now, the balance has tilted in favor of further euro gains, but the sustainability of this uptrend is not guaranteed.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY’s momentum remains decisively bullish. The pair has successfully capitalized on positive signals from the stochastic oscillator approaching the 80 level, producing a series of bullish waves. Its ability to hold above the 172.70 handle reinforces the market’s readiness to continue the upward push.
A fresh support base has formed around 171.30, providing a springboard for further gains. Immediate resistance sits at 173.40, a barrier that, if cleared, could unlock the path toward new bullish milestones. The next upside targets lie at 174.20, with a more ambitious objective at 175.20—levels not seen since the height of speculative yen weakness earlier this summer.
For today, the expected trading range is seen between 172.10 on the downside and 173.80 on the upside, with the overall bias firmly tilted to the bullish side.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY EURJPY
ENTRY PRICE: 172.95
STOP LOSS: 172.00
TAKE PROFIT: 175.20
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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