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Euro-Yen Bulls Eye 171.00 as Risk Sentiment Lifts Euro but Overbought Signals Flash Caution
Summary:
EUR/JPY holds steady near 169.00 as bullish sentiment in the Eurozone offsets the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen.
CLOSED
168.999
ENTRY
171.000
TGT
168.000
SL
169.074 -0.499 -0.29%
739
Points
Profit
168.000
SL
169.738
CLOSING
168.999
ENTRY
171.000
TGT
The Euro (EUR) remains well-supported against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, hovering just below the psychologically significant 170.00 mark, as bullish momentum extends into the second half of June. Despite a modest pullback from recent highs, the Euro has posted a remarkable monthly gain of more than 3% against the Yen, propelled by a resurgence in global risk appetite and diverging monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading around 168.85, with earlier lows near 168.56 offering immediate support. Investors appear to be positioning cautiously, with the next upside milestone—the 170.00 barrier—now firmly in focus. However, technical indicators are beginning to flash warning signals that the bullish momentum could be reaching a temporary plateau.
Euro Supported by Risk-On Flows and Interest Rate Differentials
The Euro continues to benefit from a broadly positive global risk environment, which has favored high-yielding and growth-linked currencies at the expense of traditional safe havens like the Japanese Yen. This week’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel—confirmed by U.S. officials on Tuesday—has significantly reduced geopolitical tensions, easing market fears of a wider regional conflict. The result has been a retreat in demand for the Yen, which historically rallies during times of global stress.
Compounding the pressure on the JPY is Japan’s persistently low-interest rate regime, which remains one of the most dovish among G10 economies. Despite rising inflation and stronger-than-expected domestic PMIs, the Bank of Japan has shown reluctance to pivot decisively toward policy normalization. The central bank’s June meeting summary revealed that most members prefer a wait-and-see approach, citing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and its potential impact on Japanese corporates.
By contrast, the ECB—while leaning dovish—has already delivered a rate cut in June and remains open to further easing depending on inflation and growth dynamics. However, key policymakers have emphasized flexibility rather than urgency, suggesting that the Euro still enjoys a yield advantage over the Yen in the near term.
As both Japan and the European Union race to finalize a trade agreement with the United States ahead of the July 9 deadline, the broader backdrop of improved diplomacy and economic cooperation adds to the constructive narrative for the Euro.
Technical Analysis 
From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY has entered a period of sideways consolidation, trapped between firm support near 167.60 and resistance around 169.30—the top of its most recent bullish wave. This rangebound action reflects a tug-of-war between fading momentum and persistent demand for Euro exposure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains above 68, signaling that the pair is trading near overbought territory. While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it suggests that upward progress may begin to slow unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge.
So far, the price action has respected a well-defined ascending channel, with the upper boundary near 170.00 representing a critical resistance level. A clear breakout above this threshold could trigger a new leg higher, potentially opening the door for a run toward the 170.50–171.00 zone. Conversely, failure to overcome this barrier could encourage some profit-taking and test support back toward 167.60 or even the 50-day EMA around 164.57.
Intraday, the pair is expected to trade between 168.30 and 170.00, with any dip into the lower end of this range likely to attract renewed buying interest. Should EUR/JPY successfully breach the 169.30 level and close above it, the bullish trend will regain strength, positioning the pair for a potential test of multi-year highs.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY EURJPY
ENTRY PRICE: 169.00
STOP LOSS: 168.00
TAKE PROFIT: 171.00
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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