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XAU/USD Retreats on U.S.-China Deal, Ceasefire Eases Haven Demand
Summary:
Gold prices fell sharply early Monday, dropping to a one-month low near $3,265 as risk appetite improved following a trade pact between the U.S. and China and a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Trading
3280.00
ENTRY
3200.00
TGT
3340.00
SL
3336.96 +34.18 +1.03%
0
Point
Flat
3200.00
TGT
CLOSING
3280.00
ENTRY
3340.00
SL
The price of gold (XAU/USD) extended its downward slide on Monday, retreating to a one-month low around $3,265 per ounce in early Asian trading, as global risk sentiment improved sharply following a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations and a temporary geopolitical lull in the Middle East. The precious metal, long favored as a safe-haven during periods of uncertainty, has come under renewed pressure amid waning geopolitical tensions and a growing sense of calm in financial markets.
The latest catalyst came from last week’s announcement that the United States and China reached a long-anticipated agreement to streamline rare earth shipments. The deal is being interpreted by markets as a symbolic thawing in trade relations between the world’s two largest economies—an outcome that has soothed investor nerves and lessened the immediate appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Adding to the pressure on bullion, reports over the weekend confirmed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, offering further evidence that recent geopolitical flashpoints may be easing, at least temporarily. Although markets remain cautious about the durability of such agreements, the near-term decline in perceived geopolitical risk has prompted traders to unwind gold positions and rotate back into riskier assets.
“The slowdown in geopolitics has offered an opportunity for investors to start taking profit because of the forward-looking prospects of some kind of kinetic war with China and the developments in the Middle East,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “With some of those risks temporarily diffused, the safe-haven bid is evaporating—at least for now.”
Looking ahead, market participants are turning their attention to a fresh round of commentary from Federal Reserve officials scheduled for later Monday. With inflation showing signs of moderation and Friday’s consumer spending data surprising to the downside, expectations are growing that the Fed may have to ease monetary policy sooner—and more aggressively—than previously thought.
Several investors have increased bets on multiple rate cuts this year, a shift that could eventually provide a new tailwind for gold. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion, often driving inflows into the precious metals complex during dovish policy cycles.
Yet despite this supportive macro backdrop, gold has failed to maintain upward momentum in the short term, reflecting a broader risk-on mood and technical weakness that is starting to creep into charts.
Technical Analysis 
From a technical standpoint, the gold market has shifted into a short-term bearish correction phase after failing to decisively break through resistance near $3,300. Last week’s price action saw the metal climb toward this key threshold, but overbought signals on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hinted at fading bullish momentum.
Currently, gold is trading alongside a downward-sloping bias line, reinforcing the view that the precious metal is in a corrective move. The price remains capped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), adding to the negative pressure.
The RSI has pulled back from extreme levels, suggesting the potential for continued softness unless fundamental catalysts—such as dovish Fed remarks or a resurgence of geopolitical tension—rekindle safe-haven flows.
The immediate support zone lies near $3,250, with a decisive breach potentially opening the door toward $3,200. On the upside, gold bulls would need to see a reclaiming of $3,280–$3,300 resistance, along with improving momentum indicators, to shift sentiment back toward the bullish side.
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ENTRY PRICE: 3280
STOP LOSS: 3340
TAKE PROFIT: 3200
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Warren Takunda, a seasoned finance leader specializing in the Middle East, is a trusted senior analyst with a proven track record. As head of the finance team, he excels in financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren's expertise in financial modeling and investment analysis delivers valuable insights to clients.
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