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Gold Retreats Below $3,300 as U.S.-China Trade Truce Boosts Risk Appetite Ahead of Core PCE Data
Summary:
Gold extended its decline on Friday, sliding below the $3,300 mark, as reports of a trade breakthrough between the U.S. and China lifted risk sentiment and drained demand for safe-haven assets.
CLOSED
3275.00
ENTRY
3175.00
TGT
3350.00
SL
3338.06 +35.28 +1.07%
1386
Points
Profit
3175.00
TGT
3261.14
CLOSING
3275.00
ENTRY
3350.00
SL
Gold prices came under fresh pressure on Friday, tumbling below the key psychological threshold of $3,300 per ounce, as global markets responded to a surprise development: a preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China. The news has sharply undercut safe-haven demand, sending bullion on a steep retreat for the second time this week, in line with a broader rotation into riskier assets.
At the time of writing, spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,282 per ounce, down more than 1.3% on the day, marking one of its most aggressive weekly declines in June. The move comes as investors pivot away from safety trades amid renewed optimism over geopolitical stability, easing trade tensions, and the prospect of looser monetary policy.
The immediate catalyst for gold’s latest slide was the announcement that Washington and Beijing have tentatively agreed to a new framework that would pause further tariff escalation until at least August 12. The development — reportedly spearheaded by high-level diplomatic backchannel efforts — eases concerns that the world’s two largest economies were heading toward another disruptive round of protectionism. Markets responded with enthusiasm: global equity indices rose, U.S. Treasury yields climbed modestly, and risk-sensitive currencies strengthened.
For gold, however, the shift in sentiment has been less forgiving. The yellow metal’s traditional role as a hedge against uncertainty and geopolitical unrest has been diminished in this environment of renewed optimism. Investors are increasingly reallocating capital into equities and credit markets, anticipating a rebound in global growth if trade frictions continue to subside.
While geopolitical headlines dominated the early part of the session, attention is now turning to Friday’s key U.S. macroeconomic data release — the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, the PCE data will be critical in shaping expectations around future rate decisions.
The May core PCE is expected to rise modestly on a year-over-year basis, suggesting continued but contained inflation pressures. However, any meaningful deviation from consensus — particularly an upside surprise — could disrupt the Fed’s projected easing path. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print would reinforce the argument for additional policy accommodation, supporting long-duration assets, including gold.
Adding complexity to the outlook, U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified public pressure on the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, arguing that monetary easing is necessary to maintain economic competitiveness amid lingering global uncertainties. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 72% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with odds rising for cumulative cuts of 50 basis points or more by the end of the year.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the picture for gold remains fragile in the short term. The metal broke below the key support level of $3,300 during Friday’s intraday session, signaling a potential acceleration of the ongoing bearish correction. A 4-hour chart confirms this bearish trend, showing a pronounced downward channel and price action hovering near $3,282 — well below both the 50-period EMA and previous support zones.
Notably, the RSI indicator continues to flash oversold conditions, suggesting that while momentum remains firmly to the downside, a temporary deceleration in selling pressure could occur in the near term. Still, the dominant pattern is one of weakness, with the next significant support zone seen near $3,244. A sustained break below this level would likely open the door to further downside toward $3,200 and possibly $3,175.
Resistance is now firmly entrenched between $3,300 and $3,320. Unless bulls can reclaim this zone with conviction — potentially driven by a dovish Fed narrative or a geopolitical flare-up — the path of least resistance remains lower.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL GOLD
ENTRY PRICE: 3275
STOP LOSS: 3350
TAKE PROFIT: 3175
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