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GBP/USD steadies as DXY holds sub-99
Summary:
GBP/USD market is stabilizing after Monday’s pullback from the mid-1.34s, with the U.S. Dollar Index lingering below 99 and UK traders eyeing mid-week inflation prints. Near-term direction should hinge on whether the pair can re-establish acceptance above 1.3450 while BoE communication stays cautious but not aggressively dovish and equity volatility continues to cool from last week’s spike...
PENDING
1.34000
ENTRY
1.34950
TGT
1.33400
SL
1.34042 +0.00001 +0.00%
--
Point
PENDING
1.33400
SL
CLOSING
1.34000
ENTRY
1.34950
TGT
Overview
Into Asia hours, sterling is consolidating after snapping a three-day rise on Monday, when Reuters marked GBP/USD near $1.3427 and highlighted nerves ahead of UK services-inflation data.
Policy guidance from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill last week underscored that further cuts are plausible over the coming year if the outlook evolves as expected, but warned against easing “too far or too fast,” a stance that tends to cushion GBP on rate-differential grounds.
On the dollar side, DXY’s close in the high-98s maintains a sub-99 posture, limiting topside pressure on cable while markets digest U.S. growth and shutdown headlines. This mix leaves GBP/USD biased to buy shallow dips provided the dollar doesn’t reclaim 99 on a sustained basis.
Market sentiment
Positioning is cautiously risk-on for sterling and only mildly supportive for the dollar. The VIX faded back toward the low-20s after last week’s jump, signaling that cross-asset stress is not acute, which reduces the urgency of defensive USD bids and supports GBP on pullbacks.
Reuters’ Monday wrap also pointed to softer front-end gilts as markets priced more BoE easing; however, the Bank’s emphasis on calibration rather than acceleration tempers the bearish read-through for GBP. The net effect is a “buy-the-dip unless the data meaningfully surprise dovish” tone into Wednesday’s inflation slate.
Technical analysis
The intraday structure is constructive after Monday’s fade. Price is oscillating around the Bollinger mid-line with repeated upper-band checks in the mid-1.34s, a behavior consistent with trend resumption if the 20-period mean holds on dips.
The M15 Ichimoku profile shows price rotating above or near the Kumo, with Tenkan attempting to maintain a lead over Kijun; a sustained hold of the cloud top in the 1.3380–1.3395 region would typically set up another test of 1.3450/60. Stochastic is rebuilding from mid-range; a clean %K cross back above %D from the 40–50 zone on a minor retrace is the trigger that often precedes an upper-band extension.
A decisive acceptance back over 1.3450 unlocks 1.3500/10 where recent swings capped; failure to hold the cloud invites a deeper check toward 1.3340/50 before buyers likely re-engage given the macro backdrop of a sub-99 DXY. (Levels contextualized with Monday’s Reuters print near 1.3427 and current DXY disposition.)
Trade Recommendation
Entry: 1.3400
TP: 1.3495
SL: 1.3340
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