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USD/CHF softens as DXY holds below 99
Summary:
On 17/10/2025 (GMT+7), USD/CHF traded near 0.794 after the US Dollar Index slipped into the 98.3–98.7 range and Fed speakers signaled support for another quarter-point cut on October 29, while the SNB maintains a zero policy rate amid low inflation...
EXPIRED
0.79800
ENTRY
0.78900
TGT
0.80150
SL
0.79186 -0.00144 -0.18%
--
Point
EXPIRED
0.78900
TGT
0.79330
CLOSING
0.79800
ENTRY
0.80150
SL
Overview
The pair remains heavy with spot hovering around 0.793–0.795 in Asia as the dollar’s broader tone weakens and rate-differential expectations tilt modestly against the greenback.
DXY’s close in the high-98s reinforces a lower-high sequence since early October, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s latest remarks back a cautious 25 bp cut later this month, keeping the policy narrative dollar-negative at the margin.
On the Swiss side, the SNB’s zero policy rate and subdued inflation profile limit CHF downside risk from policy surprises, helping cap USD/CHF rallies below the 0.8000 round figure.
Market sentiment
Risk sentiment is mixed but not panicked, with the VIX closing around 20.6 on 15/10, a level that restrains aggressive USD short-covering. The policy asymmetry is doing more work than pure risk appetite: US officials are openly debating the pace of additional easing, whereas the SNB’s communication remains steady around price stability with rates at 0%.
That combination has encouraged traders to fade dollar upticks against low-beta currencies like the franc while DXY holds below 99.
Technical analysis
The intraday structure points lower.
Price is spending more time along the lower Bollinger band, and bounces are stalling near the mid-band (20-period mean) around the high-0.79s, preserving a sequence of lower highs beneath 0.8000.
On Ichimoku, spot is tracking at or below the Kumo with Tenkan below Kijun; the cloud overhead between roughly 0.7970–0.7990 acts as dynamic resistance on M15. Stoch (5/3/3) is emerging from overbought after shallow pullbacks, a configuration that often precedes renewed pushes toward the lower band if the mid-band rejects price.
Immediate resistance sits at 0.7990–0.8000; a clean acceptance above that zone would neutralize the short bias. First support is 0.7900, ahead of 0.7860–0.7875 where recent daily lows clustered. Real-time dashboards show USD/CHF around 0.794, consistent with this sell-the-rally framework.
Trade Recommendation
Entry: 0.7980
TP: 0.7890
SL: 0.8015
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