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Guillotine Signal Emerges as Pound Faces Steep Decline
Summary:
Weak domestic fundamentals and policy uncertainty, particularly ongoing manufacturing contraction and potential "mansion tax" measures in the Autumn Budget, are significantly capping the pound's upside.
PENDING
1.34600
ENTRY
1.32000
TGT
1.36000
SL
1.34345 -0.00103 -0.08%
--
Point
PENDING
1.32000
TGT
CLOSING
1.34600
ENTRY
1.36000
SL
Fundamentals
On September 1, the Nationwide Building Society reported that the average UK house price in August fell 0.1% MoM, marking the third monthly decline since April. On a yearly basis, prices rose 2.1%, the weakest growth since June 2024 and well below market expectations of 2.8%. This stands in stark contrast to the nearly 5% YoY surge seen late last year before the expiry of the stamp duty relief.
Meanwhile, UK manufacturing faces mounting challenges. The S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.0 in August, down from July's six-month high of 48.0. This marked the index's first decline in five months and its 11th consecutive month below the 50 threshold, signaling continued contraction. Weak demand, the impact of global trade tariffs, and higher client costs from April's minimum wage and employer tax hikes drove a sharp drop in exports and new orders-the fastest contraction in four months. As Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated: "August saw a steep drop in new orders received by UK manufacturers, with total order books and overseas demand both falling at the fastest rates for around two years." For GBPUSD, the picture is mixed: on the one hand, persistent domestic inflation and the Bank of England's relatively hawkish stance provide some support; on the other, weak fundamentals and fiscal policy risks- especially a possible mansion tax in the Autumn Budget-weigh heavily on the pound's upside.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened on the back of persistent inflation pressures and uncertainty around Fed rate cuts, dragging GBPUSD lower. Traders will closely watch the August ISM Manufacturing PMI later today, as well as this week's labor market reports-including ADP employment change, average hourly earnings, and nonfarm payrolls, which could influence the Fed's September policy decision.
Technical Analysis
On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD formed a "guillotine" candle pattern, breaking below the Bollinger mid-band and EMA50. Lower highs are emerging, the MACD shows a bearish crossover, and the RSI has dropped to 29, entering oversold territory. Market sentiment is pessimistic, suggesting further downside, with support at the psychological level 1.3400 and the previous low near 1.3140.
On the daily chart, a similar guillotine candle pattern is visible, breaking below the Bollinger mid-band and EMA50. The MACD has turned bearish, RSI stands at 43, and highs continue to trend lower. Bearish sentiment is strong, with support at the Bollinger lower band (1.3230) and the EMA300 (1.3080).
Overall, the corrective phase appears incomplete, and the bias remains on the downside. Strategically, selling on rallies remains favored.
Trade Recommendations
Trade Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.346
Target Price: 1.320
Stop Loss: 1.360
Support: 1.340/1.337/1.320
Resistance Levels: 1.360/1.362/1.378
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20 years of trading experience, specializing in naked price action analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Chan Theory. Has conducted in-depth research on forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. Achieved a tenfold profit during the 2005 bull market and doubled profits within one month of entering the crypto market in 2015. Adheres to the trading philosophy: "Trend is king; focus on the big picture, act on
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